# Robust Short-Term OEE Forecasting in Industry 4.0 via Topological Data Analysis

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.02890 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.02890/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 65 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 Jun 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Persistence Images: A Stable Vector Representation of Persistent Homology](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1507.06217/) (2015)
- [An introduction to Topological Data Analysis: fundamental and practical aspects for data scientists](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.04019/) (2017)
- [A roadmap for the computation of persistent homology](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.08903/) (2015)
- [Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08278/) (2023)
- [Geometry Helps to Compare Persistence Diagrams](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.03357/) (2016)
- [Topological Attention for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.09031/) (2021)
- [Topological Methods in Machine Learning: A Tutorial for Practitioners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.02901/) (2024)
- [Time-Series Classification in Smart Manufacturing Systems: An Experimental Evaluation of State-of-the-Art Machine Learning Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02812/) (2023)
- [Classification of Stochastic Processes with Topological Data Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.03973/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In Industry 4.0 manufacturing environments, forecasting Overall Equipment Efficiency (OEE) is critical for data-driven operational control and predictive maintenance. However, the highly volatile and nonlinear nature of OEE time series--particularly in complex production lines and hydraulic press systems--limits the effectiveness of forecasting. This study proposes a novel informational framework that leverages Topological Data Analysis (TDA) to transform raw OEE data into structured engineering knowledge for production management. The framework models hourly OEE data from production lines and systems using persistent homology to extract large-scale topological features that characterize intrinsic operational behaviors. These features are integrated into a SARIMAX (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Regressors) architecture, where TDA components serve as exogenous variables to capture latent temporal structures. Experimental results demonstrate forecasting accuracy improvements of at least 17% over standard seasonal benchmarks, with Heat Kernel-based features consistently identified as the most effective predictors. The proposed framework was deployed in a Global Lighthouse Network manufacturing facility, providing a new strategic layer for production management and achieving a 7.4% improvement in total OEE. This research contributes a formal methodology for embedding topological signatures into classical stochastic models to enhance decision-making in knowledge-intensive production systems.