# On Efficient Bayesian Exploration in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.02639 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.02639/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in RL theory and sample complexity, one of 15 directions in Deep reinforcement learning methods.
- Builds on 39 of its 82 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Jul 2025.

## Placed in

- Deep reinforcement learning methods / [RL theory and sample complexity](https://mlsanity.com/deeprl/rl-theory-and-sample-complexity/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 39)

- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Soft Actor-Critic: Off-Policy Maximum Entropy Deep Reinforcement Learning with a Stochastic Actor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01290/) (2018)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Continuous control with deep reinforcement learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1509.02971/) (2015)
- [D4RL: Datasets for Deep Data-Driven Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07219/) (2020)
- [Curiosity-driven Exploration by Self-supervised Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.05363/) (2017)
- [Exploration by Random Network Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.12894/) (2018)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [Deep Bayesian Active Learning with Image Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.02910/) (2017)
- [Deep Reinforcement Learning in a Handful of Trials using Probabilistic Dynamics Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.12114/) (2018)
- [When to Trust Your Model: Model-Based Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.08253/) (2019)
- [Unifying Count-Based Exploration and Intrinsic Motivation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.01868/) (2016)
- [Deep Exploration via Bootstrapped DQN](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04621/) (2016)
- [Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08791/) (2020)
- [Deep Kernel Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.02222/) (2015)
- [Gaussian Processes for Big Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1309.6835/) (2013)
- [Planning to Explore via Self-Supervised World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.05960/) (2020)
- [#Exploration: A Study of Count-Based Exploration for Deep Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.04717/) (2016)
- [Self-Supervised Exploration via Disagreement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.04161/) (2019)
- [Count-Based Exploration with Neural Density Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01310/) (2017)
- [Randomized Prior Functions for Deep Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.03335/) (2018)
- [Exploration in Deep Reinforcement Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.00824/) (2022)
- [Incentivizing Exploration In Reinforcement Learning With Deep Predictive Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1507.00814/) (2015)
- [Uncertainty Quantification and Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.08792/) (2020)
- [Quantifying Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: Are Conditional Entropy and Mutual Information Appropriate Measures?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.03302/) (2022)
- [Modern Bayesian Experimental Design](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.14545/) (2023)
- [Variational Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.05480/) (2019)
- [Deep Adaptive Design: Amortizing Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.02438/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [CIG: Exploration via Conditional Information Gain](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.20878/) (2026)
- [Principled Direction-Free Intrinsic Motivation through Model-Free Epistemic Free-Energy Estimators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.16858/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In this work, we address the challenge of data-efficient exploration in reinforcement learning by examining existing principled, information-theoretic approaches to intrinsic motivation. Specifically, we focus on a class of exploration bonuses that targets epistemic uncertainty rather than the aleatoric noise inherent in the environment. We prove that these bonuses naturally signal epistemic information gains and converge to zero once the agent becomes sufficiently certain about the environment's dynamics and rewards, thereby aligning exploration with genuine knowledge gaps. Our analysis provides formal guarantees for IG-based approaches, which previously lacked theoretical grounding. To enable practical use, we also discuss tractable approximations via sparse variational Gaussian Processes, Deep Kernels and Deep Ensemble models. We then outline a general framework - Predictive Trajectory Sampling with Bayesian Exploration (PTS-BE) - which integrates model-based planning with information-theoretic bonuses to achieve sample-efficient deep exploration. We empirically demonstrate that PTS-BE substantially outperforms other baselines across a variety of environments characterized by sparse rewards and/or purely exploratory tasks.