# AMD: Adaptive Momentum and Decoupled Contrastive Learning Framework for Robust Long-Tail Trajectory Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.01801 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.01801/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 42 of its 65 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Jul 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 42)

- [A Simple Framework for Contrastive Learning of Visual Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05709/) (2020)
- [Momentum Contrast for Unsupervised Visual Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.05722/) (2019)
- [nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11027/) (2019)
- [Supervised Contrastive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.11362/) (2020)
- [Class-Balanced Loss Based on Effective Number of Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.05555/) (2019)
- [Learning Imbalanced Datasets with Label-Distribution-Aware Margin Loss](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.07413/) (2019)
- [Large-Scale Long-Tailed Recognition in an Open World](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.05160/) (2019)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05449/) (2019)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [Social-STGCNN: A Social Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Network for Human Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.11927/) (2020)
- [It Is Not the Journey but the Destination: Endpoint Conditioned Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.02025/) (2020)
- [Stochastic Trajectory Prediction via Motion Indeterminacy Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.13777/) (2022)
- [GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01827/) (2021)
- [Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Conditioned on Lane-Graph Traversals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.15004/) (2021)
- [Trajectory Forecasts in Unknown Environments Conditioned on Grid-Based Plans](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.00735/) (2020)
- [LaPred: Lane-Aware Prediction of Multi-Modal Future Trajectories of Dynamic Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00249/) (2021)
- [LAformer: Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving with Lane-Aware Scene Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13933/) (2023)
- [Trustworthy Long-Tailed Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.09030/) (2021)
- [Adaptive Trajectory Prediction via Transferable GNN](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.05046/) (2022)
- [On Exposing the Challenging Long Tail in Future Prediction of Traffic Actors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.12474/) (2021)
- [Non-Probability Sampling Network for Stochastic Human Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.13471/) (2022)
- [View Vertically: A Hierarchical Network for Trajectory Prediction via Fourier Spectrums](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.07288/) (2021)
- [Contrastive Trajectory Similarity Learning with Dual-Feature Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.05155/) (2022)
- [SeFlow: A Self-Supervised Scene Flow Method in Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01702/) (2024)
- [FEND: A Future Enhanced Distribution-Aware Contrastive Learning Framework for Long-tail Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16574/) (2023)
- [BAT: Behavior-Aware Human-Like Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06371/) (2023)
- [CoT-Drive: Efficient Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving with LLMs and Chain-of-Thought Prompting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.07234/) (2025)
- [Long-Tail Prediction Uncertainty Aware Trajectory Planning for Self-driving Vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.00788/) (2022)
- [Adapting to Length Shift: FlexiLength Network for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.00742/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Beyond Imitation: Learning Safe End-to-End Autonomous Driving from Hard Negatives](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.19771/) (2026)
- [T-DuMpRa: Teacher-guided Dual-path Multi-prototype Retrieval Augmented framework for fine-grained medical image classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.17360/) (2026)
- [Unified Prediction and Planning via Conflict-Aware Disjoint Parameter Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.19971/) (2026)
- [JACoP: Joint Alignment for Compliant Multi-Agent Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.11385/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurately predicting the future trajectories of traffic agents is essential in autonomous driving. However, due to the inherent imbalance in trajectory distributions, tail data in natural datasets often represents more complex and hazardous scenarios. Existing studies typically rely solely on a base model's prediction error, without considering the diversity and uncertainty of long-tail trajectory patterns. We propose an adaptive momentum and decoupled contrastive learning framework (AMD), which integrates unsupervised and supervised contrastive learning strategies. By leveraging an improved momentum contrast learning (MoCo-DT) and decoupled contrastive learning (DCL) module, our framework enhances the model's ability to recognize rare and complex trajectories. Additionally, we design four types of trajectory random augmentation methods and introduce an online iterative clustering strategy, allowing the model to dynamically update pseudo-labels and better adapt to the distributional shifts in long-tail data. We propose three different criteria to define long-tail trajectories and conduct extensive comparative experiments on the nuScenes and ETH/UCY datasets. The results show that AMD not only achieves optimal performance in long-tail trajectory prediction but also demonstrates outstanding overall prediction accuracy.