# Enhancing Spatio-Temporal Forecasting with Spatial Neighbourhood Fusion:A Case Study on COVID-19 Mobility in Peru

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.00031 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.00031/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 23 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Jun 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Empirical Evaluation of Gated Recurrent Neural Networks on Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.3555/) (2014)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks for Predictive Learning in Urban Computing: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.14483/) (2023)
- [Spatiotemporal Modeling and Forecasting at Scale with Dynamic Generalized Linear Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.07161/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate modeling of human mobility is critical for understanding epidemic spread and deploying timely interventions. In this work, we leverage a large-scale spatio-temporal dataset collected from Peru's national Digital Contact Tracing (DCT) application during the COVID-19 pandemic to forecast mobility flows across urban regions. A key challenge lies in the spatial sparsity of hourly mobility counts across hexagonal grid cells, which limits the predictive power of conventional time series models. To address this, we propose a lightweight and model-agnostic Spatial Neighbourhood Fusion (SPN) technique that augments each cell's features with aggregated signals from its immediate H3 neighbors. We evaluate this strategy on three forecasting backbones: NLinear, PatchTST, and K-U-Net, under various historical input lengths. Experimental results show that SPN consistently improves forecasting performance, achieving up to 9.85 percent reduction in test MSE. Our findings demonstrate that spatial smoothing of sparse mobility signals provides a simple yet effective path toward robust spatio-temporal forecasting during public health crises.