# Learning-to-Context Slope: Evaluating In-Context Learning Effectiveness Beyond Performance Illusions

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.23146 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.23146/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 57 of its 71 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Jun 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 57)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06180/) (2023)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [Program Synthesis with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07732/) (2021)
- [Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.3215/) (2014)
- [Transformer-XL: Attentive Language Models Beyond a Fixed-Length Context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.02860/) (2019)
- [MMLU-Pro: A More Robust and Challenging Multi-Task Language Understanding Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01574/) (2024)
- [Rethinking the Role of Demonstrations: What Makes In-Context Learning Work?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.12837/) (2022)
- [Is Your Code Generated by ChatGPT Really Correct? Rigorous Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.01210/) (2023)
- [Fantastically Ordered Prompts and Where to Find Them: Overcoming Few-Shot Prompt Order Sensitivity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08786/) (2021)
- [Program of Thoughts Prompting: Disentangling Computation from Reasoning for Numerical Reasoning Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.12588/) (2022)
- [A Survey on In-context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.00234/) (2022)
- [Learning To Retrieve Prompts for In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.08633/) (2021)
- [FinQA: A Dataset of Numerical Reasoning over Financial Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.00122/) (2021)
- [Can language models learn from explanations in context?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.02329/) (2022)
- [Label Words are Anchors: An Information Flow Perspective for Understanding In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14160/) (2023)
- [Many-Shot In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.11018/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models for Data Annotation and Synthesis: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.13446/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models Are Latent Variable Models: Explaining and Finding Good Demonstrations for In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.11916/) (2023)
- [Pretraining task diversity and the emergence of non-Bayesian in-context learning for regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.15063/) (2023)
- [Unified Demonstration Retriever for In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.04320/) (2023)
- [Diverse Demonstrations Improve In-context Compositional Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.06800/) (2022)
- [LLMs Can Easily Learn to Reason from Demonstrations Structure, not content, is what matters!](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.07374/) (2025)
- [What and How does In-Context Learning Learn? Bayesian Model Averaging, Parameterization, and Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19420/) (2023)
- [The Evolution of Statistical Induction Heads: In-Context Learning Markov Chains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11004/) (2024)
- [Ordered Neurons: Integrating Tree Structures into Recurrent Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.09536/) (2018)
- [Structured Prompting: Scaling In-Context Learning to 1,000 Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.06713/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Multi-Layer Attention is the Amplifier of Demonstration Effectiveness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.00385/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In-context learning (ICL) has emerged as an effective approach to enhance the performance of large language models (LLMs). However, its effectiveness varies significantly across models and tasks, posing challenges for practitioners to determine when ICL reliably improves performance. Current evaluation approaches, reliant on performance change after applying ICL, suffer from low reliability, poor attribution, and impracticality in data-insufficient scenarios. We propose the Learning-to-Context Slope (LCS), a novel metric that quantifies ICL effectiveness by modeling the slope between learning gain (loss decrease from demonstrations) and contextual relevance (demonstration-input relevance). LCS addresses key limitations of performance-based metrics: (1) it captures continuous loss changes even when outputs are incorrect, improving reliability; (2) its formulation attributes ICL failures to weak contextual alignment (inability to adapt inputs to demonstrations) or strong output calibration (self-verification of correctness); and (3) it minimizes reliance on labeled data via synthetic evaluation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LCS strongly correlates with performance improvements in labeled settings and reliably reflects true effectiveness in biased or data-scarce scenarios. Further analysis reveals actionable thresholds for LCS and identifies model capabilities critical to ICL success.