# Efficient Serving of LLM Applications with Probabilistic Demand Modeling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.14851 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.14851/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 44 of its 84 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Jun 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 44)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06180/) (2023)
- [FlashAttention: Fast and Memory-Efficient Exact Attention with IO-Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14135/) (2022)
- [Gemini 1.5: Unlocking multimodal understanding across millions of tokens of context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.05530/) (2024)
- [Survey of Hallucination in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03629/) (2022)
- [GPTQ: Accurate Post-Training Quantization for Generative Pre-trained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.17323/) (2022)
- [HuggingGPT: Solving AI Tasks with ChatGPT and its Friends in Hugging Face](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17580/) (2023)
- [Graph of Thoughts: Solving Elaborate Problems with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.09687/) (2023)
- [FrugalGPT: How to Use Large Language Models While Reducing Cost and Improving Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.05176/) (2023)
- [Medusa: Simple LLM Inference Acceleration Framework with Multiple Decoding Heads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10774/) (2024)
- [Extending Context Window of Large Language Models via Positional Interpolation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.15595/) (2023)
- [DistServe: Disaggregating Prefill and Decoding for Goodput-optimized Large Language Model Serving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.09670/) (2024)
- [Taming Throughput-Latency Tradeoff in LLM Inference with Sarathi-Serve](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.02310/) (2024)
- [SpecInfer: Accelerating Generative Large Language Model Serving with Tree-based Speculative Inference and Verification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.09781/) (2023)
- [SqueezeLLM: Dense-and-Sparse Quantization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.07629/) (2023)
- [FacTool: Factuality Detection in Generative AI -- A Tool Augmented Framework for Multi-Task and Multi-Domain Scenarios](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.13528/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models in Finance: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.10723/) (2023)
- [Mooncake: A KVCache-centric Disaggregated Architecture for LLM Serving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.00079/) (2024)
- [Llumnix: Dynamic Scheduling for Large Language Model Serving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.03243/) (2024)
- [Cost-Efficient Large Language Model Serving for Multi-turn Conversations with CachedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.19708/) (2024)
- [S-LoRA: Serving Thousands of Concurrent LoRA Adapters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.03285/) (2023)
- [Fast Distributed Inference Serving for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.05920/) (2023)
- [Inference without Interference: Disaggregate LLM Inference for Mixed Downstream Workloads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.11181/) (2024)
- [LoongServe: Efficiently Serving Long-Context Large Language Models with Elastic Sequence Parallelism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.09526/) (2024)
- [Parrot: Efficient Serving of LLM-based Applications with Semantic Variable](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.19888/) (2024)
- [Towards Scientific Intelligence: A Survey of LLM-based Scientific Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24047/) (2025)
- [Response Length Perception and Sequence Scheduling: An LLM-Empowered LLM Inference Pipeline](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13144/) (2023)
- [Efficient LLM Scheduling by Learning to Rank](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.15792/) (2024)
- [S3: Increasing GPU Utilization during Generative Inference for Higher Throughput](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.06000/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [HexAGenT: Efficient Agentic LLM Serving via Workflow- and Heterogeneity-Aware Scheduling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.16637/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Applications based on Large Language Models (LLMs) contains a series of tasks to address real-world problems with boosted capability, which have dynamic demand volumes on diverse backends. Existing serving systems treat the resource demands of LLM applications as a blackbox, compromising end-to-end efficiency due to improper queuing order and backend warm up latency. We find that the resource demands of LLM applications can be modeled in a general and accurate manner with Probabilistic Demand Graph (PDGraph). We then propose Hermes, which leverages PDGraph for efficient serving of LLM applications. Confronting probabilistic demand description, Hermes applies the Gittins policy to determine the scheduling order that can minimize the average application completion time. It also uses the PDGraph model to help prewarm cold backends at proper moments. Experiments with diverse LLM applications confirm that Hermes can effectively improve the application serving efficiency, reducing the average completion time by over 70% and the P95 completion time by over 80%.