# HydroChronos: Forecasting Decades of Surface Water Change

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.14362 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.14362/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 50 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Jun 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Explaining by Removing: A Unified Framework for Model Explanation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.14878/) (2020)
- [Improving data-driven global weather prediction using deep convolutional neural networks on a cubed sphere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.11927/) (2020)
- [CaBuAr: California Burned Areas dataset for delineation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.11519/) (2024)
- [KAN You See It? KANs and Sentinel for Effective and Explainable Crop Field Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.07040/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Forecasting surface water dynamics is crucial for water resource management and climate change adaptation. However, the field lacks comprehensive datasets and standardized benchmarks. In this paper, we introduce HydroChronos, a large-scale, multi-modal spatiotemporal dataset for surface water dynamics forecasting designed to address this gap. We couple the dataset with three forecasting tasks. The dataset includes over three decades of aligned Landsat 5 and Sentinel-2 imagery, climate data, and Digital Elevation Models for diverse lakes and rivers across Europe, North America, and South America. We also propose AquaClimaTempo UNet, a novel spatiotemporal architecture with a dedicated climate data branch, as a strong benchmark baseline. Our model significantly outperforms a Persistence baseline for forecasting future water dynamics by +14% and +11% F1 across change detection and direction of change classification tasks, and by +0.1 MAE on the magnitude of change regression. Finally, we conduct an Explainable AI analysis to identify the key climate variables and input channels that influence surface water change, providing insights to inform and guide future modeling efforts.