# Base3: a simple interpolation-based ensemble method for robust dynamic link prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.12764 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.12764/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 25 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Jun 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)
- [Temporal Graph Networks for Deep Learning on Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10637/) (2020)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.07962/) (2020)
- [EvolveGCN: Evolving Graph Convolutional Networks for Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10191/) (2019)
- [Towards Better Dynamic Graph Learning: New Architecture and Unified Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.13047/) (2023)
- [Do We Really Need Complicated Model Architectures For Temporal Networks?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11636/) (2023)
- [Temporal Graph Benchmark for Machine Learning on Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01026/) (2023)
- [Towards Better Evaluation for Dynamic Link Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.10128/) (2022)
- [Efficient Neural Common Neighbor for Temporal Graph Link Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.07926/) (2024)
- [On the Power of Heuristics in Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.04910/) (2025)
- [UTG: Towards a Unified View of Snapshot and Event Based Models for Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.12269/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Self-Exploring Language Models for Explainable Link Forecasting on Temporal Graphs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.00975/) (2025)
- [EdgeReMIND: A Scalable, Top-Ranked Memorization Baseline for Temporal Multi-Relational Link Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.17916/) (2026)
- [Do Temporal Link Predictors Need Learned Memory? A Smoothed-Count Baseline with a Handful of Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.35364/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Dynamic link prediction remains a central challenge in temporal graph learning, particularly in designing models that are both effective and practical for real-world deployment. Existing approaches often rely on complex neural architectures, which are computationally intensive and difficult to interpret. In this work, we build on the strong recurrence-based foundation of the EdgeBank baseline, by supplementing it with inductive capabilities. We do so by leveraging the predictive power of non-learnable signals from two complementary perspectives: historical edge recurrence, as captured by EdgeBank, and global node popularity, as introduced in the PopTrack model. We propose t-CoMem, a lightweight memory module that tracks temporal co-occurrence patterns and neighborhood activity. Building on this, we introduce Base3, an interpolation-based model that fuses EdgeBank, PopTrack, and t-CoMem into a unified scoring framework. This combination effectively bridges local and global temporal dynamics -- repetition, popularity, and context -- without relying on training. Evaluated on the Temporal Graph Benchmark, Base3 achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art deep models, even outperforming them on some datasets. Importantly, it considerably improves on existing baselines' performance under more realistic and challenging negative sampling strategies -- offering a simple yet robust alternative for temporal graph learning.