# Decadal sink-source shifts of forest aboveground carbon since 1988

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.11879 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.11879/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 95 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Jun 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Axiomatic Attribution for Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01365/) (2017)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [A high-resolution canopy height model of the Earth](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.08322/) (2022)
- [Country-wide high-resolution vegetation height mapping with Sentinel-2](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.13270/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Forest ecosystems are vital to the global carbon cycle, yet their long-term aboveground carbon (AGC) dynamics remain uncertain. Here, we integrate multi-source satellite observations with probabilistic deep learning models to reconstruct a harmonized, uncertainty-aware global forest AGC record from 1988 to 2021 at 0.25-deg. We find that, although global forests sequestered 6.2 PgC, moist tropical and boreal forests have progressively transitioned toward carbon sources since the early 2000s. This shift coincides with a strengthening negative correlation between tropical AGC variability and atmospheric CO2 growth rates (r = -0.63 in 2011-2021), suggesting tropical forests increasingly modulate the global carbon cycle. Notably, in the Brazilian Amazon, the contribution of intact forests to the year-to-year variations in AGC losses increased from 33% in the 1990s to 76% in the 2010s, surpassing that of deforested areas (from 60% to 13%). Our findings highlight the vulnerability of carbon stocks in key biomes and provide a benchmark to track emerging sink-source shifts under anthropogenic climate change.