# The Effects of Data Augmentation on Confidence Estimation for LLMs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.11046 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.11046/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [PaLM: Scaling Language Modeling with Pathways](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.02311/) (2022)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [RandAugment: Practical automated data augmentation with a reduced search space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.13719/) (2019)
- [Gemma 2: Improving Open Language Models at a Practical Size](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00118/) (2024)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Quantifying Language Models' Sensitivity to Spurious Features in Prompt Design or: How I learned to start worrying about prompt formatting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.11324/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [EDA: Easy Data Augmentation Techniques for Boosting Performance on Text Classification Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.11196/) (2019)
- [Improving Neural Machine Translation Models with Monolingual Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.06709/) (2015)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [Did Aristotle Use a Laptop? A Question Answering Benchmark with Implicit Reasoning Strategies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.02235/) (2021)
- [A Survey of Data Augmentation Approaches for NLP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.03075/) (2021)
- [Prompting GPT-3 To Be Reliable](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.09150/) (2022)
- [SAC3: Reliable Hallucination Detection in Black-Box Language Models via Semantic-aware Cross-check Consistency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.01740/) (2023)
- [Calibrating Language Models with Adaptive Temperature Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19817/) (2024)
- [Confidence Under the Hood: An Investigation into the Confidence-Probability Alignment in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.16282/) (2024)
- [Text AutoAugment: Learning Compositional Augmentation Policy for Text Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.00523/) (2021)
- [Enhancing Language Model Factuality via Activation-Based Confidence Calibration and Guided Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.13230/) (2024)
- [Are Data Augmentation Methods in Named Entity Recognition Applicable for Uncertainty Estimation?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.02062/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Confidence estimation is crucial for reflecting the reliability of large language models (LLMs), particularly in the widely used closed-source models. Utilizing data augmentation for confidence estimation is viable, but discussions focus on specific augmentation techniques, limiting its potential. We study the impact of different data augmentation methods on confidence estimation. Our findings indicate that data augmentation strategies can achieve better performance and mitigate the impact of overconfidence. We investigate the influential factors related to this and discover that, while preserving semantic information, greater data diversity enhances the effectiveness of augmentation. Furthermore, the impact of different augmentation strategies varies across different range of application. Considering parameter transferability and usability, the random combination of augmentations is a promising choice.