# Mini-Game Lifetime Value Prediction in WeChat

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.11037 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.11037/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 22 of its 50 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [LightGCN: Simplifying and Powering Graph Convolution Network for Recommendation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.02126/) (2020)
- [Neural Graph Collaborative Filtering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.08108/) (2019)
- [One Model to Serve All: Star Topology Adaptive Recommender for Multi-Domain CTR Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.11427/) (2021)
- [PEPNet: Parameter and Embedding Personalized Network for Infusing with Personalized Prior Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01115/) (2023)
- [Field-weighted Factorization Machines for Click-Through Rate Prediction in Display Advertising](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.03514/) (2018)
- [Heterogeneous Graph Masked Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.09957/) (2022)
- [Multi-Graph Convolution Collaborative Filtering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.00267/) (2020)
- [G-Refer: Graph Retrieval-Augmented Large Language Model for Explainable Recommendation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12586/) (2025)
- [Multi-FR: A Multi-objective Optimization Framework for Multi-stakeholder Fairness-aware Recommendation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.02951/) (2021)
- [Billion-user Customer Lifetime Value Prediction: An Industrial-scale Solution from Kuaishou](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.13358/) (2022)
- [Customer Lifetime Value in Video Games Using Deep Learning and Parametric Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.12799/) (2018)
- [Modelling High-Order Social Relations for Item Recommendation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.10149/) (2020)
- [Out of the Box Thinking: Improving Customer Lifetime Value Modelling via Expert Routing and Game Whale Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.12729/) (2023)
- [GateNet: Gating-Enhanced Deep Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.03519/) (2020)
- [ElasTST: Towards Robust Varied-Horizon Forecasting with Elastic Time-Series Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.01842/) (2024)
- [OptDist: Learning Optimal Distribution for Customer Lifetime Value Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.08585/) (2024)
- [AdaSparse: Learning Adaptively Sparse Structures for Multi-Domain Click-Through Rate Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.13108/) (2022)
- [Pareto-based Multi-Objective Recommender System with Forgetting Curve](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.16868/) (2023)
- [ADSNet: Cross-Domain LTV Prediction with an Adaptive Siamese Network in Advertising](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.10517/) (2024)
- [Graph Neural Patching for Cold-Start Recommendations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.14241/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [HT-GNN: Hyper-Temporal Graph Neural Network for Customer Lifetime Value Prediction in Baidu Ads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.13013/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The LifeTime Value (LTV) prediction, which endeavors to forecast the cumulative purchase contribution of a user to a particular item, remains a vital challenge that advertisers are keen to resolve. A precise LTV prediction system enhances the alignment of user interests with meticulously designed advertisements, thereby generating substantial profits for advertisers. Nonetheless, this issue is complicated by the paucity of data typically observed in real-world advertising scenarios. The purchase rate among registered users is often as critically low as 0.1%, resulting in a dataset where the majority of users make only several purchases. Consequently, there is insufficient supervisory signal for effectively training the LTV prediction model. An additional challenge emerges from the interdependencies among tasks with high correlation. It is a common practice to estimate a user's contribution to a game over a specified temporal interval. Varying the lengths of these intervals corresponds to distinct predictive tasks, which are highly correlated. For instance, predictions over a 7-day period are heavily reliant on forecasts made over a 3-day period, where exceptional cases can adversely affect the accuracy of both tasks. In order to comprehensively address the aforementioned challenges, we introduce an innovative framework denoted as Graph-Represented Pareto-Optimal LifeTime Value prediction (GRePO-LTV). Graph representation learning is initially employed to address the issue of data scarcity. Subsequently, Pareto-Optimization is utilized to manage the interdependence of prediction tasks.