# Query-Level Uncertainty in Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.09669 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09669/

## Key facts

- Cited by 14 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 64 of its 75 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Jun 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 64)

- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [Toolformer: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Use Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04761/) (2023)
- [TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.07958/) (2021)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [Phi-3 Technical Report: A Highly Capable Language Model Locally on Your Phone](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14219/) (2024)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Understanding intermediate layers using linear classifier probes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.01644/) (2016)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [MuSiQue: Multihop Questions via Single-hop Question Composition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.00573/) (2021)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [SelfCheckGPT: Zero-Resource Black-Box Hallucination Detection for Generative Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08896/) (2023)
- [Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.03827/) (2022)
- [Crowdsourcing Multiple Choice Science Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06209/) (2017)
- [The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.13734/) (2023)
- [Active Retrieval Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.06983/) (2023)
- [Adaptive-RAG: Learning to Adapt Retrieval-Augmented Large Language Models through Question Complexity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14403/) (2024)
- [Detecting Pretraining Data from Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16789/) (2023)
- [DoLa: Decoding by Contrasting Layers Improves Factuality in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.03883/) (2023)
- [Measuring short-form factuality in large language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.04368/) (2024)
- [INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03744/) (2024)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15927/) (2024)
- [A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08298/) (2023)
- [A Survey on Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models: What, How, Where, and How Well?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24235/) (2025)
- [Unsupervised Quality Estimation for Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.10608/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Semantic Energy: Detecting LLM Hallucination Beyond Entropy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.14496/) (2025)
- [On Calibration of Large Language Models: From Response To Capability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13540/) (2026)
- [To Call or Not to Call: A Framework to Assess and Optimize LLM Tool Calling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.00737/) (2026)
- [Two Axes of LLM Abstention: Answer Correctness and Question Answerability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.08456/) (2026)
- [The Alignment Tax: Response Homogenization in Aligned LLMs and Its Implications for Uncertainty Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.24124/) (2026)
- [GRADE: Probing Knowledge Gaps in LLMs through Gradient Subspace Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.02830/) (2026)
- [Trust or Abstain? A Self-Aware RAG Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.18792/) (2026)
- [Capability Self-Assessment in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00251/) (2026)
- [Metacognition in LLMs: Foundations, Progress, and Opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.11881/) (2026)
- [SALMONN-duo: Adaptive Dual-System Coordination for Full-Duplex Voice Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.34247/) (2026)
- [How Do Uncertainty Estimators Align with Hallucination Occurrence in LLMs?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.27016/) (2026)
- [Epistemic Uncertainty Is Not the Reducible Kind](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.12646/) (2026)
- [Evaluating LLM Uncertainty in Long-Form Generation Using Deterministic Ground Truth](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.03870/) (2026)
- [The Geometry of Knowledge Accessibility in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.03052/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

It is important for Large Language Models (LLMs) to be aware of the boundary of their knowledge, distinguishing queries they can confidently answer from those that lie beyond their capabilities. Such awareness enables models to perform adaptive inference, such as invoking retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), engaging in slow and deep thinking, or abstaining from answering when appropriate. These mechanisms are key to developing efficient and trustworthy AI. In this work, we propose a method to detect knowledge boundaries via Query-Level Uncertainty, which estimates if a model is capable of answering a given query before generating any tokens, thus avoiding the generation cost. To this end, we propose a novel, training-free method called Internal Confidence, which leverages self-evaluations across layers and tokens to provide a reliable signal of uncertainty. Empirical studies on both factual question answering and mathematical reasoning tasks demonstrate that our Internal Confidence outperforms several baselines in quality of confidence while being computationally cheaper. Furthermore, we demonstrate its benefits in adaptive inference settings, showing that for RAG and model cascading it reduces inference costs while preserving overall performance.