# LaDCast: A Latent Diffusion Model for Medium-Range Ensemble Weather Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.09193 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09193/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 28 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Jun 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 28 of 28)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [HunyuanVideo: A Systematic Framework For Large Video Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.03603/) (2024)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [Datasets: A Community Library for Natural Language Processing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.02846/) (2021)
- [SANA: Efficient High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Linear Diffusion Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10629/) (2024)
- [GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.12794/) (2022)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15560/) (2023)
- [Rotary Position Embedding for Vision Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.13298/) (2024)
- [Deep Compression Autoencoder for Efficient High-Resolution Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10733/) (2024)
- [GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.15796/) (2023)
- [Pangu-Weather: A 3D High-Resolution Model for Fast and Accurate Global Weather Forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.02556/) (2022)
- [Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03876/) (2023)
- [DYffusion: A Dynamics-informed Diffusion Model for Spatiotemporal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.01984/) (2023)
- [DiffusionPDE: Generative PDE-Solving Under Partial Observation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.17763/) (2024)
- [PreDiff: Precipitation Nowcasting with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.10422/) (2023)
- [DiffCast: A Unified Framework via Residual Diffusion for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06734/) (2023)
- [DiffDA: a Diffusion Model for Weather-scale Data Assimilation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.05932/) (2024)
- [Latent diffusion models for generative precipitation nowcasting with accurate uncertainty quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.12891/) (2023)
- [ArchesWeather & ArchesWeatherGen: a deterministic and generative model for efficient ML weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.12971/) (2024)
- [FengWu-GHR: Learning the Kilometer-scale Medium-range Global Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00059/) (2024)
- [CRA5: Extreme Compression of ERA5 for Portable Global Climate and Weather Research via an Efficient Variational Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.03376/) (2024)
- [Appa: Bending Weather Dynamics with Latent Diffusion Models for Global Data Assimilation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.18720/) (2025)
- [Generative Learning of the Solution of Parametric Partial Differential Equations Using Guided Diffusion Models and Virtual Observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00157/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Tyche: One Step Flow for Efficient Probabilistic Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.06916/) (2026)
- [Reframing Generative Models for Physical Systems using Stochastic Interpolants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.26282/) (2025)
- [Data-Efficient Ensemble Weather Forecasting with Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.11047/) (2025)
- [Field-Space Autoencoder for Scalable Climate Emulators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.15102/) (2026)
- [PuYun-LDM: A Latent Diffusion Model for High-Resolution Ensemble Weather Forecasts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.11807/) (2026)
- [Marchuk: Efficient Global Weather Forecasting from Mid-Range to Sub-Seasonal Scales via Flow Matching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.24428/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate probabilistic weather forecasting demands both high accuracy and efficient uncertainty quantification, challenges that overburden both ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) and recent machine-learning methods. We introduce LaDCast, the first global latent-diffusion framework for medium-range ensemble forecasting, which generates hourly ensemble forecasts entirely in a learned latent space. An autoencoder compresses high-dimensional ERA5 reanalysis fields into a compact representation, and a transformer-based diffusion model produces sequential latent updates with arbitrary hour initialization. The model incorporates Geometric Rotary Position Embedding (GeoRoPE) to account for the Earth's spherical geometry, a dual-stream attention mechanism for efficient conditioning, and sinusoidal temporal embeddings to capture seasonal patterns. LaDCast achieves deterministic and probabilistic skill close to that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast IFS-ENS, without any explicit perturbations. Notably, LaDCast demonstrates superior performance in tracking rare extreme events such as cyclones, capturing their trajectories more accurately than established models. By operating in latent space, LaDCast reduces storage and compute by orders of magnitude, demonstrating a practical path toward forecasting at kilometer-scale resolution in real time. We open-source our code and models and provide the training and evaluation pipelines at: https://github.com/tonyzyl/ladcast.