# Kinetics: Rethinking Test-Time Scaling Laws

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.05333 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.05333/

## Key facts

- Cited by 12 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 72 of its 110 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Jun 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 72)

- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06180/) (2023)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [OPT: Open Pre-trained Transformer Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.01068/) (2022)
- [Outrageously Large Neural Networks: The Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.06538/) (2017)
- [Longformer: The Long-Document Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.05150/) (2020)
- [Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15556/) (2022)
- [FlashAttention-2: Faster Attention with Better Parallelism and Work Partitioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.08691/) (2023)
- [Efficient Streaming Language Models with Attention Sinks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17453/) (2023)
- [Qwen2 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.10671/) (2024)
- [PaLM-E: An Embodied Multimodal Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.03378/) (2023)
- [LiveCodeBench: Holistic and Contamination Free Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07974/) (2024)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [GPTQ: Accurate Post-Training Quantization for Generative Pre-trained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.17323/) (2022)
- [Mixtral of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.04088/) (2024)
- [WebGPT: Browser-assisted question-answering with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.09332/) (2021)
- [Rethinking Attention with Performers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.14794/) (2020)
- [Generating Long Sequences with Sparse Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.10509/) (2019)
- [s1: Simple test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19393/) (2025)
- [OpenAI o1 System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.16720/) (2024)
- [DeepSeek-V2: A Strong, Economical, and Efficient Mixture-of-Experts Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.04434/) (2024)
- [Language Models as Zero-Shot Planners: Extracting Actionable Knowledge for Embodied Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.07207/) (2022)
- [Accelerating Large Language Model Decoding with Speculative Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01318/) (2023)
- [Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21787/) (2024)
- [GLaM: Efficient Scaling of Language Models with Mixture-of-Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.06905/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [MobileLLM-R1: Exploring the Limits of Sub-Billion Language Model Reasoners with Open Training Recipes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.24945/) (2025)
- [Jackpot: Optimal Budgeted Rejection Sampling for Extreme Actor-Policy Mismatch Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.06107/) (2026)
- [Sparrow: Sparse Rollout for Stable and Efficient Long-context RL of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.08446/) (2026)
- [Not All Bits Are Equal: Scale-Dependent Memory Optimization Strategies for Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10964/) (2025)
- [Multi-Agent Reasoning Improves Compute Efficiency: Pareto-Optimal Test-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.01566/) (2026)
- [Evaluating the Robustness of Chinchilla Compute-Optimal Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.23963/) (2025)
- [Unified Neural Scaling Laws](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.26248/) (2026)
- [Prefix Sliding for efficient test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.26070/) (2026)
- [3D Optimization for AI Inference Scaling: Balancing Accuracy, Cost, and Latency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.18905/) (2025)
- [Interpretable Adaptive Sampling for LLM Test-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.03961/) (2026)
- [BlindSight: Harnessing Sparsity for Efficient Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.09071/) (2025)
- [How Much Can Language Models Gain from Test-Time Computation?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.01110/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We rethink test-time scaling laws from a practical efficiency perspective, revealing that the effectiveness of smaller models is significantly overestimated. Prior work, grounded in compute-optimality, overlooks critical memory access bottlenecks introduced by inference-time strategies (e.g., Best-of-N, long CoTs). Our holistic analysis, spanning models from 0.6B to 32B parameters, reveals a new Kinetics Scaling Law that better guides resource allocation by incorporating both computation and memory access costs. Kinetics Scaling Law suggests that test-time compute is more effective when used on models above a threshold than smaller ones. A key reason is that in TTS, attention, rather than parameter count, emerges as the dominant cost factor. Motivated by this, we propose a new scaling paradigm centered on sparse attention, which lowers per-token cost and enables longer generations and more parallel samples within the same resource budget. Empirically, we show that sparse attention models consistently outperform dense counterparts, achieving over 60 points gains in low-cost regimes and over 5 points gains in high-cost regimes for problem-solving accuracy on AIME, encompassing evaluations on state-of-the-art MoEs. These results suggest that sparse attention is essential and increasingly important with more computing invested, for realizing the full potential of test-time scaling where, unlike training, accuracy has yet to saturate as a function of computation, and continues to improve through increased generation. The code is available at https://github.com/Infini-AI-Lab/Kinetics.