# Neural MJD: Neural Non-Stationary Merton Jump Diffusion for Time Series Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.04542 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.04542/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 39 of its 97 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Jun 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 39)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [Efficiently Modeling Long Sequences with Structured State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.00396/) (2021)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Enhancing the Locality and Breaking the Memory Bottleneck of Transformer on Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00235/) (2019)
- [CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03502/) (2021)
- [Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Irregular Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.08926/) (2020)
- [Time Series Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13408/) (2020)
- [Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12072/) (2021)
- [Long-term Forecasting with TiDE: Time-series Dense Encoder](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08424/) (2023)
- [Financial Time Series Forecasting with Deep Learning : A Systematic Literature Review: 2005-2019](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.13288/) (2019)
- [Scalable Gradients for Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.01328/) (2020)
- [Transformer Hawkes Process](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09291/) (2020)
- [Diffusion-based Time Series Imputation and Forecasting with Structured State Space Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.09399/) (2022)
- [Neural Jump Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10403/) (2019)
- [Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting via Conditioned Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06103/) (2020)
- [Neural Rough Differential Equations for Long Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.08295/) (2020)
- [Machine Learning of Linear Differential Equations using Gaussian Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.02440/) (2017)
- [Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: Tutorial and Literature Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10240/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [AutoSOTA: An End-to-End Automated Research System for State-of-the-Art AI Model Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.05550/) (2026)
- [Deep ZakaiJ: Structured Filtering for Jump-Diffusion Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.24548/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

While deep learning methods have achieved strong performance in time series prediction, their black-box nature and inability to explicitly model underlying stochastic processes often limit their generalization to non-stationary data, especially in the presence of abrupt changes. In this work, we introduce Neural MJD, a neural network based non-stationary Merton jump diffusion (MJD) model. Our model explicitly formulates forecasting as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) simulation problem, combining a time-inhomogeneous Ito diffusion to capture non-stationary stochastic dynamics with a time-inhomogeneous compound Poisson process to model abrupt jumps. To enable tractable learning, we introduce a likelihood truncation mechanism that caps the number of jumps within small time intervals and provide a theoretical error bound for this approximation. Additionally, we propose an Euler-Maruyama with restart solver, which achieves a provably lower error bound in estimating expected states and reduced variance compared to the standard solver. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that Neural MJD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning and statistical learning methods.