# Conformal coronary calcification volume estimation with conditional coverage via histogram clustering

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.04030 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.04030/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 4 of its 13 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Jun 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [TotalSegmentator: robust segmentation of 104 anatomical structures in CT images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05868/) (2022)
- [Improved conformalized quantile regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.02808/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Incidental detection and quantification of coronary calcium in CT scans could lead to the early introduction of lifesaving clinical interventions. However, over-reporting could negatively affect patient wellbeing and unnecessarily burden the medical system. Therefore, careful considerations should be taken when automatically reporting coronary calcium scores. A cluster-based conditional conformal prediction framework is proposed to provide score intervals with calibrated coverage from trained segmentation networks without retraining. The proposed method was tuned and used to calibrate predictive intervals for 3D UNet models (deterministic, MCDropout and deep ensemble) reaching similar coverage with better triage metrics compared to conventional conformal prediction. Meaningful predictive intervals of calcium scores could help triage patients according to the confidence of their risk category prediction.