# ADFormer: Aggregation Differential Transformer for Passenger Demand Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.02576 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.02576/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Jun 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.06450/) (2016)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [GMAN: A Graph Multi-Attention Network for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08415/) (2019)
- [TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20150/) (2024)
- [Deep Multi-View Spatial-Temporal Network for Taxi Demand Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.08714/) (2018)
- [Spatial-Temporal Identity: A Simple yet Effective Baseline for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05233/) (2022)
- [PDFormer: Propagation Delay-Aware Dynamic Long-Range Transformer for Traffic Flow Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.07945/) (2023)
- [DUET: Dual Clustering Enhanced Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.10859/) (2024)
- [CATCH: Channel-Aware multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection via Frequency Patching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.12261/) (2024)
- [A Comprehensive Survey of Deep Learning for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: A Channel Strategy Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.10721/) (2025)
- [Learning dynamic and hierarchical traffic spatiotemporal features with Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.05163/) (2021)
- [Regularized Graph Structure Learning with Semantic Knowledge for Multi-variates Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.06126/) (2022)
- [STG4Traffic: A Survey and Benchmark of Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.00495/) (2023)
- [Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Graph Attention Networks for Ride-hailing Demand Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.05905/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Enhancing Ride-Hailing Forecasting at DiDi with Multi-View Geospatial Representation Learning from the Web](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.10502/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Passenger demand forecasting helps optimize vehicle scheduling, thereby improving urban efficiency. Recently, attention-based methods have been used to adequately capture the dynamic nature of spatio-temporal data. However, existing methods that rely on heuristic masking strategies cannot fully adapt to the complex spatio-temporal correlations, hindering the model from focusing on the right context. These works also overlook the high-level correlations that exist in the real world. Effectively integrating these high-level correlations with the original correlations is crucial. To fill this gap, we propose the Aggregation Differential Transformer (ADFormer), which offers new insights to demand forecasting promotion. Specifically, we utilize Differential Attention to capture the original spatial correlations and achieve attention denoising. Meanwhile, we design distinct aggregation strategies based on the nature of space and time. Then, the original correlations are unified with the high-level correlations, enabling the model to capture holistic spatio-temporal relations. Experiments conducted on taxi and bike datasets confirm the effectiveness and efficiency of our model, demonstrating its practical value. The code is available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/ADFormer.