# Self-ensemble: Mitigating Confidence Mis-calibration for Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.01951 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.01951/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 30 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Jun 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.07958/) (2021)
- [HuggingFace's Transformers: State-of-the-art Natural Language Processing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.03771/) (2019)
- [MMLU-Pro: A More Robust and Challenging Multi-Task Language Understanding Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01574/) (2024)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [MathQA: Towards Interpretable Math Word Problem Solving with Operation-Based Formalisms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.13319/) (2019)
- [KIVI: A Tuning-Free Asymmetric 2bit Quantization for KV Cache](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02750/) (2024)
- [Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12656/) (2019)
- [QASC: A Dataset for Question Answering via Sentence Composition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.11473/) (2019)
- [A Survey on Trustworthy LLM Agents: Threats and Countermeasures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09648/) (2025)
- [KV Cache Compression, But What Must We Give in Return? A Comprehensive Benchmark of Long Context Capable Approaches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01527/) (2024)
- [Ada-LEval: Evaluating long-context LLMs with length-adaptable benchmarks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.06480/) (2024)
- [Benchmarking Large Language Models for Math Reasoning Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.10839/) (2024)
- [Survey and Improvement Strategies for Gene Prioritization with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.18794/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [A Survey of Self-Evolving Agents: What, When, How, and Where to Evolve on the Path to Artificial Super Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.21046/) (2025)
- [Structured Scaling of AI Discovery Across Diverse Scientific Domains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.19341/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Although Large Language Models (LLMs) perform well in general fields, they exhibit a confidence distortion problem on multi-choice question-answering (MCQA), particularly as the number of answer choices increases. Specifically, on MCQA with many choices, LLMs suffer from under-confidence in correct predictions and over-confidence in incorrect ones, leading to a substantially degraded performance. To solve this problem, we propose Self-ensemble in this work. Our method splits the choices into several groups and ensembles LLM predictions across these groups to reach a final decision. The advantage of Self-ensemble is its plug-and-play nature, where it can be integrated into existing LLM architecture based on a designed attention mask and positional encoding, without requiring labeled datasets for parameter tuning. Experimental results on three LLMs and datasets demonstrate that Self-ensemble comprehensively addresses the confidence distortion problem of LLMs, outperforming standard inference as well as baseline methods.