# Using Ensemble Diffusion to Estimate Uncertainty for End-to-End Autonomous Driving

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.00560 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.00560/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Diffusion and flow policies for robotics, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 33 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 31 May 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Diffusion and flow policies for robotics](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/diffusion-and-flow-policies-for-robotics/)
- End-to-end autonomous driving / [End-to-end system architecture](https://mlsanity.com/driving/end-to-end-system-architecture/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 33)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [Diffusion Policy: Visuomotor Policy Learning via Action Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.04137/) (2023)
- [CARLA: An Open Urban Driving Simulator](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.03938/) (2017)
- [Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03458/) (2022)
- [D4RL: Datasets for Deep Data-Driven Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07219/) (2020)
- [DiffWave: A Versatile Diffusion Model for Audio Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.09761/) (2020)
- [Planning with Diffusion for Flexible Behavior Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09991/) (2022)
- [Diffusion Models in Vision: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.04747/) (2022)
- [NuPlan: A closed-loop ML-based planning benchmark for autonomous vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.11810/) (2021)
- [TransFuser: Imitation with Transformer-Based Sensor Fusion for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.15997/) (2022)
- [NAVSIM: Data-Driven Non-Reactive Autonomous Vehicle Simulation and Benchmarking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15349/) (2024)
- [DiffusionDrive: Truncated Diffusion Model for End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.15139/) (2024)
- [VADv2: End-to-End Vectorized Autonomous Driving via Probabilistic Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.13243/) (2024)
- [MotionDiffuser: Controllable Multi-Agent Motion Prediction using Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03083/) (2023)
- [GenAD: Generalized Predictive Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.09630/) (2024)
- [Diffusion-Based Planning for Autonomous Driving with Flexible Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.15564/) (2025)
- [Learning from All Vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11934/) (2022)
- [GoalFlow: Goal-Driven Flow Matching for Multimodal Trajectories Generation in End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.05689/) (2025)
- [A General Framework for Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.06890/) (2019)
- [Estimating Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty with a Single Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03478/) (2024)
- [User-defined Event Sampling and Uncertainty Quantification in Diffusion Models for Physical Dynamical Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.07526/) (2023)
- [Hidden Biases of End-to-End Driving Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.09602/) (2024)
- [Probabilistic End-to-End Vehicle Navigation in Complex Dynamic Environments with Multimodal Sensor Fusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.01935/) (2020)
- [A Diffusion-Model of Joint Interactive Navigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.12508/) (2023)
- [Zero-Shot Uncertainty Quantification using Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.04718/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [WOD-E2E: Waymo Open Dataset for End-to-End Driving in Challenging Long-tail Scenarios](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.26125/) (2025)
- [Exemplar Diffusion: Improving Medical Object Detection with Opportunistic Labels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.15267/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

End-to-end planning systems for autonomous driving are rapidly improving, especially in closed-loop simulation environments like CARLA. Many such driving systems either do not consider uncertainty as part of the plan itself or obtain it by using specialized representations that do not generalize. In this paper, we propose EnDfuser, an end-to-end driving system that uses a diffusion model as the trajectory planner. EnDfuser effectively leverages complex perception information like fused camera and LiDAR features, through combining attention pooling and trajectory planning into a single diffusion transformer module. Instead of committing to a single plan, EnDfuser produces a distribution of candidate trajectories (128 for our case) from a single perception frame through ensemble diffusion. By observing the full set of candidate trajectories, EnDfuser provides interpretability for uncertain, multimodal future trajectory spaces. Using this information we design a simplistic safety-rule that improves the system's driving score by 1.7% on the LAV benchmark. Our findings suggest that ensemble diffusion, used as a drop-in replacement for traditional point-estimate trajectory planning modules, can contribute to an uncertainty-aware decision making process in End-to-End driving policies by modeling the uncertainty of the posterior trajectory distribution.