# Empirical Validation of the Independent Chip Model

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.00180 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.00180/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 2 of its 17 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [DeepStack: Expert-Level Artificial Intelligence in No-Limit Poker](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.01724/) (2017)
- [AIVAT: A New Variance Reduction Technique for Agent Evaluation in Imperfect Information Games](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.06915/) (2016)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [ICM Out! Better Tournament Strategy from Computed Continuations, vs. Solvers and LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.09586/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The independent chip model (ICM) forms a cornerstone of all modern poker tournament strategy. However, despite its prominence, the ICM's performance in the real world has not been sufficiently scrutinized, especially at a large scale. In this paper, we introduce our new dataset of poker tournaments, consisting of results of over ten thousand events. Then, using this dataset, we perform two experiments as part of a large-scale empirical validation of the ICM. First, we verify that the ICM performs more accurately than a baseline we propose. Second, we obtain empirical evidence of the ICM underestimating the performances of players with larger stacks while overestimating those who are short-stacked. Our contributions may be useful to future researchers developing new algorithms for estimating a player's value in poker tournaments.