# Timing is Important: Risk-aware Fund Allocation based on Time-Series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.24835 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.24835/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11939/) (2023)
- [Enhancing the Locality and Breaking the Memory Bottleneck of Transformer on Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00235/) (2019)
- [OptNet: Differentiable Optimization as a Layer in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.00443/) (2017)
- [Differentiable Convex Optimization Layers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12430/) (2019)
- [From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1402.5481/) (2014)
- [TSMixer: Lightweight MLP-Mixer Model for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09364/) (2023)
- [Decision-Focused Learning: Foundations, State of the Art, Benchmark and Future Opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.13565/) (2023)
- [Generative Time Series Forecasting with Diffusion, Denoise, and Disentanglement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.03028/) (2023)
- [Generalization Bounds in the Predict-then-Optimize Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11488/) (2019)
- [Decision Trees for Decision-Making under the Predict-then-Optimize Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.00360/) (2020)
- [Contrastive Losses and Solution Caching for Predict-and-Optimize](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.05354/) (2020)
- [Risk Bounds and Calibration for a Smart Predict-then-Optimize Method](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.08887/) (2021)
- [Benchmarking PtO and PnO Methods in the Predictive Combinatorial Optimization Regime](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07633/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Fund allocation has been an increasingly important problem in the financial domain. In reality, we aim to allocate the funds to buy certain assets within a certain future period. Naive solutions such as prediction-only or Predict-then-Optimize approaches suffer from goal mismatch. Additionally, the introduction of the SOTA time series forecasting model inevitably introduces additional uncertainty in the predicted result. To solve both problems mentioned above, we introduce a Risk-aware Time-Series Predict-and-Allocate (RTS-PnO) framework, which holds no prior assumption on the forecasting models. Such a framework contains three features: (i) end-to-end training with objective alignment measurement, (ii) adaptive forecasting uncertainty calibration, and (iii) agnostic towards forecasting models. The evaluation of RTS-PnO is conducted over both online and offline experiments. For offline experiments, eight datasets from three categories of financial applications are used: Currency, Stock, and Cryptos. RTS-PnO consistently outperforms other competitive baselines. The online experiment is conducted on the Cross-Border Payment business at FiT, Tencent, and an 8.4% decrease in regret is witnessed when compared with the product-line approach. The code for the offline experiment is available at https://github.com/fuyuanlyu/RTS-PnO.