# Estimating Misreporting in the Presence of Genuine Modification: A Causal Perspective

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.23954 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23954/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Meta-learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03461/) (2017)
- [Quasi-Oracle Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.04912/) (2017)
- [Performative Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06673/) (2020)
- [Strategic Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.06980/) (2015)
- [Strategic Classification from Revealed Preferences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.07887/) (2017)
- [Strategic Classification is Causal Modeling in Disguise](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10362/) (2019)
- [Causal Strategic Linear Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.10066/) (2020)
- [Strategic Classification Made Practical](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.01826/) (2021)
- [Interval Estimation of Individual-Level Causal Effects Under Unobserved Confounding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.02894/) (2018)
- [Quantifying Ignorance in Individual-Level Causal-Effect Estimates under Hidden Confounding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.04850/) (2021)
- [Bounds on the conditional and average treatment effect with unobserved confounding factors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.09521/) (2018)
- [Strategic Instrumental Variable Regression: Recovering Causal Relationships From Strategic Responses](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.05762/) (2021)
- [Causal Strategic Classification: A Tale of Two Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.06280/) (2023)
- [Incentivizing Truthfulness Through Audits in Strategic Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.09147/) (2020)
- [Who's Gaming the System? A Causally-Motivated Approach for Detecting Strategic Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.02000/) (2024)
- [Catch Me If You Can: Combatting Fraud in Artificial Currency Based Government Benefits Programs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.16162/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In settings where ML models are used to inform the allocation of resources, agents affected by the allocation decisions might have an incentive to strategically change their features to secure better outcomes. While prior work has studied strategic responses broadly, disentangling misreporting from genuine modification remains a fundamental challenge. In this paper, we propose a causally-motivated approach to identify and quantify how much an agent misreports on average by distinguishing deceptive changes in their features from genuine modification. Our key insight is that, unlike genuine modification, misreported features do not causally affect downstream variables (i.e., causal descendants). We exploit this asymmetry by comparing the causal effect of misreported features on their causal descendants as derived from manipulated datasets against those from unmanipulated datasets. We formally prove identifiability of the misreporting rate and characterize the variance of our estimator. We empirically validate our theoretical results using a semi-synthetic and real Medicare dataset with misreported data, demonstrating that our approach can be employed to identify misreporting in real-world scenarios.