# Neither Stochastic Parroting nor AGI: LLMs Solve Tasks through Context-Directed Extrapolation from Training Data Priors

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.23323 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23323/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 47 of its 66 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 May 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 47)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Finetuned Language Models Are Zero-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01652/) (2021)
- [Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12712/) (2023)
- [Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07682/) (2022)
- [Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.04615/) (2022)
- [A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models: Principles, Taxonomy, Challenges, and Open Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.05232/) (2023)
- [Language Models Don't Always Say What They Think: Unfaithful Explanations in Chain-of-Thought Prompting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.04388/) (2023)
- [An Explanation of In-context Learning as Implicit Bayesian Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.02080/) (2021)
- [Transformers learn in-context by gradient descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.07677/) (2022)
- [Towards Automated Circuit Discovery for Mechanistic Interpretability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14997/) (2023)
- [What learning algorithm is in-context learning? Investigations with linear models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15661/) (2022)
- [Towards Faithfully Interpretable NLP Systems: How should we define and evaluate faithfulness?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.03685/) (2020)
- [Are Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models a Mirage?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.15004/) (2023)
- [Larger language models do in-context learning differently](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.03846/) (2023)
- [Trained Transformers Learn Linear Models In-Context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09927/) (2023)
- [On the Planning Abilities of Large Language Models : A Critical Investigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.15771/) (2023)
- [Data Distributional Properties Drive Emergent In-Context Learning in Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.05055/) (2022)
- [Reasoning or Reciting? Exploring the Capabilities and Limitations of Language Models Through Counterfactual Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.02477/) (2023)
- [Transformers as Algorithms: Generalization and Stability in In-context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.07067/) (2023)
- [Predictability and Surprise in Large Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07785/) (2022)
- [The Debate Over Understanding in AI's Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.13966/) (2022)
- [What and How does In-Context Learning Learn? Bayesian Model Averaging, Parameterization, and Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19420/) (2023)
- [Are Emergent Abilities in Large Language Models just In-Context Learning?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.01809/) (2023)
- [The CoT Collection: Improving Zero-shot and Few-shot Learning of Language Models via Chain-of-Thought Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14045/) (2023)
- [Why think step by step? Reasoning emerges from the locality of experience](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03843/) (2023)
- [Deception Abilities Emerged in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.16513/) (2023)
- [Frontier AI Regulation: Managing Emerging Risks to Public Safety](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03718/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In this position paper we raise critical awareness of a realistic view of LLM capabilities that eschews extreme alternative views that LLMs are either 'stochastic parrots' or in possession of 'emergent' advanced reasoning capabilities, which, due to their unpredictable emergence, constitute an existential threat. Our middle-ground view is that LLMs extrapolate from priors from their training data while using context to guide the model to the appropriate priors; we call this "context-directed extrapolation." Specifically, this context direction is achieved through examples in base models, leading to in-context learning, while instruction tuning allows LLMs to perform similarly based on prompts rather than explicit examples. Under this view, substantiated though existing literature, while reasoning capabilities go well beyond stochastic parroting, such capabilities are predictable, controllable, not indicative of advanced reasoning akin to high-level cognitive capabilities in humans, and not infinitely scalable with additional training. As a result, fears of uncontrollable emergence of agency are allayed, while research advances are appropriately refocused on the processes of context-directed extrapolation and how this interacts with training data to produce valuable capabilities in LLMs. Future work can therefore explore alternative augmenting techniques that do not rely on inherent advanced reasoning in LLMs.