# Daunce: Data Attribution through Uncertainty Estimation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.23223 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23223/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 37 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Understanding Black-box Predictions via Influence Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04730/) (2017)
- [Instruction-Following Evaluation for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07911/) (2023)
- [Data Shapley: Equitable Valuation of Data for Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.02868/) (2019)
- [Deep Batch Active Learning by Diverse, Uncertain Gradient Lower Bounds](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.03671/) (2019)
- [Estimating Training Data Influence by Tracing Gradient Descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08484/) (2020)
- [LESS: Selecting Influential Data for Targeted Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.04333/) (2024)
- [What Neural Networks Memorize and Why: Discovering the Long Tail via Influence Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.03703/) (2020)
- [Studying Large Language Model Generalization with Influence Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03296/) (2023)
- [TRAK: Attributing Model Behavior at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.14186/) (2023)
- [Black-Box Tuning for Language-Model-as-a-Service](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03514/) (2022)
- [Limitations of the Empirical Fisher Approximation for Natural Gradient Descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.12558/) (2019)
- [Datamodels: Predicting Predictions from Training Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.00622/) (2022)
- [On the Accuracy of Influence Functions for Measuring Group Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.13289/) (2019)
- [Training Data Influence Analysis and Estimation: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.04612/) (2022)
- [Data Banzhaf: A Robust Data Valuation Framework for Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.15466/) (2022)
- [FastIF: Scalable Influence Functions for Efficient Model Interpretation and Debugging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.15781/) (2020)
- [Instructions as Backdoors: Backdoor Vulnerabilities of Instruction Tuning for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14710/) (2023)
- [What is Your Data Worth to GPT? LLM-Scale Data Valuation with Influence Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.13954/) (2024)
- [Influence Selection for Active Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09331/) (2021)
- [Self-play with Execution Feedback: Improving Instruction-following Capabilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.13542/) (2024)
- [Black-box Prompt Learning for Pre-trained Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.08531/) (2022)
- [Scalable Influence and Fact Tracing for Large Language Model Pretraining](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.17413/) (2024)
- [Training Data Attribution via Approximate Unrolled Differentiation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.12186/) (2024)
- [Corruption-Robust Algorithms with Uncertainty Weighting for Nonlinear Contextual Bandits and Markov Decision Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.05949/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Vision: Data-Centric Anchoring for Robust and Interpretable Agentic AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.08216/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Training data attribution (TDA) methods aim to identify which training examples influence a model's predictions on specific test data most. By quantifying these influences, TDA supports critical applications such as data debugging, curation, and valuation. Gradient-based TDA methods rely on gradients and second-order information, limiting their applicability at scale. While recent random projection-based methods improve scalability, they often suffer from degraded attribution accuracy. Motivated by connections between uncertainty and influence functions, we introduce Daunce - a simple yet effective data attribution approach through uncertainty estimation. Our method operates by fine-tuning a collection of perturbed models and computing the covariance of per-example losses across these models as the attribution score. Daunce is scalable to large language models (LLMs) and achieves more accurate attribution compared to existing TDA methods. We validate Daunce on tasks ranging from vision tasks to LLM fine-tuning, and further demonstrate its compatibility with black-box model access. Applied to OpenAI's GPT models, our method achieves, to our knowledge, the first instance of data attribution on proprietary LLMs.