# Diffusion-Based Generative Models for 3D Occupancy Prediction in Autonomous Driving

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.23115 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23115/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Diffusion and flow policies for robotics, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 44 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 May 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Diffusion and flow policies for robotics](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/diffusion-and-flow-policies-for-robotics/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 44)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.12598/) (2022)
- [ScanNet: Richly-annotated 3D Reconstructions of Indoor Scenes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.04405/) (2017)
- [Structured Denoising Diffusion Models in Discrete State-Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03006/) (2021)
- [BEVFormer: Learning Bird's-Eye-View Representation from Multi-Camera Images via Spatiotemporal Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.17270/) (2022)
- [Planning-oriented Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10156/) (2022)
- [Sigmoid-Weighted Linear Units for Neural Network Function Approximation in Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.03118/) (2017)
- [BEVDet: High-performance Multi-camera 3D Object Detection in Bird-Eye-View](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.11790/) (2021)
- [KITTI-360: A Novel Dataset and Benchmarks for Urban Scene Understanding in 2D and 3D](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.13410/) (2021)
- [Argmax Flows and Multinomial Diffusion: Learning Categorical Distributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.05379/) (2021)
- [Tri-Perspective View for Vision-Based 3D Semantic Occupancy Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.07817/) (2023)
- [Joint 2D-3D-Semantic Data for Indoor Scene Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.01105/) (2017)
- [Cylindrical and Asymmetrical 3D Convolution Networks for LiDAR Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.10033/) (2020)
- [MonoScene: Monocular 3D Semantic Scene Completion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.00726/) (2021)
- [Occ3D: A Large-Scale 3D Occupancy Prediction Benchmark for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14365/) (2023)
- [SurroundOcc: Multi-Camera 3D Occupancy Prediction for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.09551/) (2023)
- [VoxFormer: Sparse Voxel Transformer for Camera-based 3D Semantic Scene Completion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.12251/) (2023)
- [OccFormer: Dual-path Transformer for Vision-based 3D Semantic Occupancy Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05316/) (2023)
- [MagicDrive: Street View Generation with Diverse 3D Geometry Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02601/) (2023)
- [OpenOccupancy: A Large Scale Benchmark for Surrounding Semantic Occupancy Perception](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.03991/) (2023)
- [Scene as Occupancy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.02851/) (2023)
- [Panacea: Panoramic and Controllable Video Generation for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.16813/) (2023)
- [FB-OCC: 3D Occupancy Prediction based on Forward-Backward View Transformation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01492/) (2023)
- [RenderOcc: Vision-Centric 3D Occupancy Prediction with 2D Rendering Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.09502/) (2023)
- [PanoOcc: Unified Occupancy Representation for Camera-based 3D Panoptic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10013/) (2023)
- [Copilot4D: Learning Unsupervised World Models for Autonomous Driving via Discrete Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.01017/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Dr.Occ: Depth- and Region-Guided 3D Occupancy from Surround-View Cameras for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.01007/) (2026)
- [ProOOD: Prototype-Guided Out-of-Distribution 3D Occupancy Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.01081/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurately predicting 3D occupancy grids from visual inputs is critical for autonomous driving, but current discriminative methods struggle with noisy data, incomplete observations, and the complex structures inherent in 3D scenes. In this work, we reframe 3D occupancy prediction as a generative modeling task using diffusion models, which learn the underlying data distribution and incorporate 3D scene priors. This approach enhances prediction consistency, noise robustness, and better handles the intricacies of 3D spatial structures. Our extensive experiments show that diffusion-based generative models outperform state-of-the-art discriminative approaches, delivering more realistic and accurate occupancy predictions, especially in occluded or low-visibility regions. Moreover, the improved predictions significantly benefit downstream planning tasks, highlighting the practical advantages of our method for real-world autonomous driving applications.