# Forecasting Multivariate Urban Data via Decomposition and Spatio-Temporal Graph Analysis

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.22474 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.22474/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [How Attentive are Graph Attention Networks?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.14491/) (2021)
- [N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10437/) (2019)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [Spatial-Temporal Fusion Graph Neural Networks for Traffic Flow Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.09641/) (2020)
- [Is Mamba Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.11144/) (2024)
- [CycleNet: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting through Modeling Periodic Patterns](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.18479/) (2024)
- [Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Dynamic Graph Neural ODEs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.08408/) (2022)
- [Carbon-Aware Computing for Datacenters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.11750/) (2021)
- [SubseasonalClimateUSA: A Dataset for Subseasonal Forecasting and Benchmarking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.10399/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Long-term forecasting of multivariate urban data poses a significant challenge due to the complex spatiotemporal dependencies inherent in such datasets. This paper presents DST, a novel multivariate time-series forecasting model that integrates graph attention and temporal convolution within a Graph Neural Network (GNN) to effectively capture spatial and temporal dependencies, respectively. To enhance model performance, we apply a decomposition-based preprocessing step that isolates trend, seasonal, and residual components of the time series, enabling the learning of distinct graph structures for different time-series components. Extensive experiments on real-world urban datasets, including electricity demand, weather metrics, carbon intensity, and air pollution, demonstrate the effectiveness of DST across a range of forecast horizons, from several days to one month. Specifically, our approach achieves an average improvement of 2.89% to 9.10% in long-term forecasting accuracy over state-of-the-art time-series forecasting models.