# Causal Posterior Estimation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.21468 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.21468/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 74 of its 119 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 74)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Generative Modeling by Estimating Gradients of the Data Distribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.05600/) (2019)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Flow Straight and Fast: Learning to Generate and Transfer Data with Rectified Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.03003/) (2022)
- [Gaussian Error Linear Units (GELUs)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.08415/) (2016)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [Fourier Features Let Networks Learn High Frequency Functions in Low Dimensional Domains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10739/) (2020)
- [Transformers are RNNs: Fast Autoregressive Transformers with Linear Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16236/) (2020)
- [Consistency Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.01469/) (2023)
- [Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1601.00670/) (2016)
- [Diffusion Posterior Sampling for General Noisy Inverse Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14687/) (2022)
- [Transformers are SSMs: Generalized Models and Efficient Algorithms Through Structured State Space Duality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.21060/) (2024)
- [Building Normalizing Flows with Stochastic Interpolants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15571/) (2022)
- [Denoising Diffusion Restoration Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11793/) (2022)
- [Improving and generalizing flow-based generative models with minibatch optimal transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.00482/) (2023)
- [Masked Autoregressive Flow for Density Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07057/) (2017)
- [Improving Variational Inference with Inverse Autoregressive Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.04934/) (2016)
- [Diffusion Schr"odinger Bridge with Applications to Score-Based Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.01357/) (2021)
- [Improving Diffusion Models for Inverse Problems using Manifold Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00941/) (2022)
- [Augmented Neural ODEs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.01681/) (2019)
- [MADE: Masked Autoencoder for Distribution Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.03509/) (2015)
- [Revisiting Classifier Two-Sample Tests](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.06545/) (2016)
- [Sequential Neural Likelihood: Fast Likelihood-free Inference with Autoregressive Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.07226/) (2018)
- [Automatic Posterior Transformation for Likelihood-Free Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07488/) (2019)
- [Neural Autoregressive Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.00779/) (2018)
- [SNIPS: Solving Noisy Inverse Problems Stochastically](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.14951/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Diffusion Models in Simulation-Based Inference: A Tutorial Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.20685/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, where evaluating the likelihood function is intractable or computationally expensive, but generating outputs given parameter values is straightforward. CPE approximates the posterior distribution using flow matching while directly incorporating the conditional dependence structure induced by the model's graphical representation into the neural network architecture. Across extensive experiments, we demonstrate that hard-coding these conditional dependencies into the network, rather than requiring them to be learned from data, enables CPE to achieve highly accurate posterior inference that matches or outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.