# ExAnte: A Benchmark for Ex-Ante Inference in Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.19533 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19533/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 37 of its 52 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [GLUE: A Multi-Task Benchmark and Analysis Platform for Natural Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.07461/) (2018)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.07958/) (2021)
- [Language Models as Knowledge Bases?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.01066/) (2019)
- [FEVER: a large-scale dataset for Fact Extraction and VERification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05355/) (2018)
- [FActScore: Fine-grained Atomic Evaluation of Factual Precision in Long Form Text Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14251/) (2023)
- [When Not to Trust Language Models: Investigating Effectiveness of Parametric and Non-Parametric Memories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10511/) (2022)
- [Benchmarking Large Language Models for News Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13848/) (2023)
- [News Summarization and Evaluation in the Era of GPT-3](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.12356/) (2022)
- [ToolQA: A Dataset for LLM Question Answering with External Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13304/) (2023)
- [Reasoning with Language Model Prompting: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09597/) (2022)
- [RealTime QA: What's the Answer Right Now?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.13332/) (2022)
- [Quark: Controllable Text Generation with Reinforced Unlearning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13636/) (2022)
- [In-Context Unlearning: Language Models as Few Shot Unlearners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07579/) (2023)
- [ResearchAgent: Iterative Research Idea Generation over Scientific Literature with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.07738/) (2024)
- [SciMON: Scientific Inspiration Machines Optimized for Novelty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14259/) (2023)
- [A Dataset for Answering Time-Sensitive Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.06314/) (2021)
- [StreamingQA: A Benchmark for Adaptation to New Knowledge over Time in Question Answering Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11388/) (2022)
- [Large Language Models Can Learn Temporal Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06853/) (2024)
- [Test of Time: A Benchmark for Evaluating LLMs on Temporal Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09170/) (2024)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models in Finance (FinLLMs)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02315/) (2024)
- [Larimar: Large Language Models with Episodic Memory Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.11901/) (2024)
- [Dated Data: Tracing Knowledge Cutoffs in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.12958/) (2024)
- [Machine Unlearning in Generative AI: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.20516/) (2024)
- [Dissecting Language Models: Machine Unlearning via Selective Pruning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.01267/) (2024)
- [TimeBench: A Comprehensive Evaluation of Temporal Reasoning Abilities in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.17667/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [ForeSci: Evaluating LLM Agents for Forward-Looking AI Research Judgment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00644/) (2026)
- [Temporal Leakage in LLM Backtesting: Measurement, Validation, and Adjusted Scores](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.02985/) (2026)
- [Teaching Large Language Models When Not to Know: Learning Temporal Critique for Ex-Ante Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.14636/) (2026)
- [HindsightBench: A Black-Box Behavioral Audit Protocol for Parametric Hindsight in Time-Indexed LLM Decision Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.18867/) (2026)
- [Frontier Financial Judgement: Can agents tell what might move a stock?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.20645/) (2026)
- [Auditing Future-Memory Use in Point-in-Time Language Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.18602/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models (LLMs) face significant challenges in ex-ante reasoning, where analysis, inference, or predictions must be made without access to information from future events. Even with explicit prompts enforcing temporal cutoffs, LLMs often generate outputs influenced by internalized knowledge of events beyond the specified cutoff. This paper introduces a novel task and benchmark designed to evaluate the ability of LLMs to reason while adhering to such temporal constraints. The benchmark includes a variety of tasks: stock prediction, Wikipedia event prediction, scientific publication prediction, and Question Answering (QA), designed to assess factual knowledge under temporal cutoff constraints. We use leakage rate to quantify models' reliance on future information beyond cutoff timestamps. Experimental results reveal that LLMs struggle to consistently adhere to temporal cutoffs across common prompting strategies and tasks, demonstrating persistent challenges in ex-ante reasoning. This benchmark provides a potential evaluation framework to advance the development of LLMs' temporal reasoning ability for time-sensitive applications.