# Towards Harmonized Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.19073 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19073/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 31 of its 52 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 31)

- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [RoBERTa: A Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.11692/) (2019)
- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [OPT: Open Pre-trained Transformer Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.01068/) (2022)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [DeBERTa: Decoding-enhanced BERT with Disentangled Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.03654/) (2020)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [What Disease does this Patient Have? A Large-scale Open Domain Question Answering Dataset from Medical Exams](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.13081/) (2020)
- [Inference-Time Intervention: Eliciting Truthful Answers from a Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03341/) (2023)
- [DeBERTaV3: Improving DeBERTa using ELECTRA-Style Pre-Training with Gradient-Disentangled Embedding Sharing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.09543/) (2021)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15927/) (2024)
- [Selective Question Answering under Domain Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.09462/) (2020)
- [Unsupervised Quality Estimation for Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.10608/) (2020)
- [Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similarities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.20003/) (2024)
- [A General Framework for Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.06890/) (2019)
- [LLM Internal States Reveal Hallucination Risk Faced With a Query](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.03282/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Estimation and Quantification for LLMs: A Simple Supervised Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.15993/) (2024)
- [Calibrating Large Language Models Using Their Generations Only](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.05973/) (2024)
- [Deep AutoRegressive Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1310.8499/) (2013)
- [Do LLMs Know When to NOT Answer? Investigating Abstention Abilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.16221/) (2024)
- [MARS: Meaning-Aware Response Scoring for Uncertainty Estimation in Generative LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11756/) (2024)
- [When to Trust LLMs: Aligning Confidence with Response Quality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.17287/) (2024)
- [Cycles of Thought: Measuring LLM Confidence through Stable Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.03441/) (2024)
- [Finetuning Language Models to Emit Linguistic Expressions of Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12180/) (2024)
- [Do Not Design, Learn: A Trainable Scoring Function for Uncertainty Estimation in Generative LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11278/) (2024)
- [Are Large Language Models More Honest in Their Probabilistic or Verbalized Confidence?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.09773/) (2024)
- [Enhancing Confidence Expression in Large Language Models Through Learning from Past Experience](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.10315/) (2024)
- [Just rephrase it! Uncertainty estimation in closed-source language models via multiple rephrased queries](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.13907/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Decoupling Reasoning and Confidence: Resurrecting Calibration in Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.09117/) (2026)
- [Code-MUE: Measuring Code LLMs' Uncertainty through Execution-based Semantic Interaction Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.12273/) (2026)
- [The Safeguard Worked. Is the LLM System Safer?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.00519/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

To facilitate robust and trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs), it is essential to quantify the reliability of their generations through uncertainty estimation. While recent efforts have made significant advancements by leveraging the internal logic and linguistic features of LLMs to estimate uncertainty scores, our empirical analysis highlights the pitfalls of these methods to strike a harmonized estimation between indication, balance, and calibration, which hinders their broader capability for accurate uncertainty estimation. To address this challenge, we propose CUE (Corrector for Uncertainty Estimation): A straightforward yet effective method that employs a lightweight model trained on data aligned with the target LLM's performance to adjust uncertainty scores. Comprehensive experiments across diverse models and tasks demonstrate its effectiveness, which achieves consistent improvements of up to 60% over existing methods.