# Simulating Macroeconomic Expectations in Survey Experiments with LLM-based Economic Agents

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.17648 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17648/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Social simulation and multi-agent debate, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 6 of its 99 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 May 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Social simulation and multi-agent debate](https://mlsanity.com/agents/social-simulation-and-multi-agent-debate/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.10997/) (2023)
- [Scaling Synthetic Data Creation with 1,000,000,000 Personas](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.20094/) (2024)
- [AgentSociety: Large-Scale Simulation of LLM-Driven Generative Agents Advances Understanding of Human Behaviors and Society](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.08691/) (2025)
- [AI as Decision-Maker: Ethics and Risk Preferences of LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01168/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [A Survey of Context Engineering for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.13334/) (2025)
- [HouseholdBench: Evaluating Large Language Models as Predictors of Household Economic Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.07563/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We introduce a framework for simulating macroeconomic expectations in survey experiments using LLM-based economic agents (LLM Agents). We construct LLM Agents equipped with several functional modules that retrieve personal characteristics, prior expectations, and dynamic external information. We validate our framework by recapitulating three representative survey designs covering various expectations across different types of respondents. Our results show that LLM Agents generate expectation distributions highly similar to human data and capture human-aligned qualitative patterns in open-ended responses. Evaluation reveals that priors are crucial for matching distributions, whereas personal and external information drive human-like thought processes. Our findings offer guidance for narrowing the belief gap between generative AI and humans at the aggregate level while delineating the boundaries of the framework.