# ALIEN: Aligned Entropy Head for Improving Uncertainty Estimation of LLMs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.15443 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15443/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 34 of its 49 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 34)

- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [RoBERTa: A Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.11692/) (2019)
- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [DistilBERT, a distilled version of BERT: smaller, faster, cheaper and lighter](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.01108/) (2019)
- [Parameter-Efficient Transfer Learning for NLP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.00751/) (2019)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Qwen2 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.10671/) (2024)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [Neural Network Acceptability Judgments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.12471/) (2018)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [GoEmotions: A Dataset of Fine-Grained Emotions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.00547/) (2020)
- [ToxiGen: A Large-Scale Machine-Generated Dataset for Adversarial and Implicit Hate Speech Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.09509/) (2022)
- [BERTweet: A pre-trained language model for English Tweets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.10200/) (2020)
- [Explicit Inductive Bias for Transfer Learning with Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.01483/) (2018)
- [Unsupervised Quality Estimation for Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.10608/) (2020)
- [A Simple Fix to Mahalanobis Distance for Improving Near-OOD Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09022/) (2021)
- [Out-of-Distribution Detection and Selective Generation for Conditional Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15558/) (2022)
- [Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04696/) (2024)
- [Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Free-Form Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01379/) (2023)
- [LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07383/) (2023)
- [Yelp Dataset Challenge: Review Rating Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.05362/) (2016)
- [Mutual Information Alleviates Hallucinations in Abstractive Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.13210/) (2022)
- [Do Androids Know They're Only Dreaming of Electric Sheep?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.17249/) (2023)
- [ConU: Conformal Uncertainty in Large Language Models with Correctness Coverage Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.00499/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [UAT-LITE: Inference-Time Uncertainty-Aware Attention for Pretrained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.02952/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Uncertainty estimation remains a key challenge when adapting pre-trained language models to downstream classification tasks, with overconfidence often observed for difficult inputs. While predictive entropy provides a strong baseline for uncertainty estimation, it considers mainly aleatoric uncertainty and has limited capacity to capture effects, such as class overlap or ambiguous linguistic cues. We introduce Aligned Entropy - ALIEN, a lightweight method that refines entropy-based uncertainty by aligning it with prediction reliability. ALIEN trains a small uncertainty head initialized to produce the model's original entropy and subsequently fine-tuned with two regularization mechanisms. Experiments across seven classification datasets and two NER benchmarks, evaluated on five language models (RoBERTa, ELECTRA, LLaMA-2, Qwen2.5, and Qwen3), show that ALIEN consistently outperforms strong baselines across all considered scenarios in detecting incorrect predictions, while achieving the lowest calibration error. The proposed method introduces only a small inference overhead (in the order of milliseconds per batch on CPU) and increases the model's parameter count by just 0.002% for decoder models and 0.5% for encoder models, without requiring storage of intermediate states. It improves uncertainty estimation while preserving the original model architecture, making the approach practical for large-scale deployment with modern language models. Our results demonstrate that entropy can be effectively refined through lightweight supervised alignment, producing more reliable uncertainty estimates without modifying the backbone model. The code is available at 4.