# Post-Training Corrections for Improved Time-Series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.15354 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15354/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 51 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [SGDR: Stochastic Gradient Descent with Warm Restarts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.03983/) (2016)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [Averaging Weights Leads to Wider Optima and Better Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05407/) (2018)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03885/) (2024)
- [Snapshot Ensembles: Train 1, get M for free](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.00109/) (2017)
- [TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14616/) (2024)
- [TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20150/) (2024)
- [Non-stochastic Best Arm Identification and Hyperparameter Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.07943/) (2015)
- [Tiny Time Mixers (TTMs): Fast Pre-trained Models for Enhanced Zero/Few-Shot Forecasting of Multivariate Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.03955/) (2024)
- [Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08278/) (2023)
- [SegRNN: Segment Recurrent Neural Network for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11200/) (2023)
- [TimeHF: Billion-Scale Time Series Models Guided by Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.15942/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Time-series forecasting is a critical task in various business domains, but it remains inherently challenging. Typically, large forecasting models are trained in a single, resource-intensive run. Once training is completed, a natural question arises:~is there still potential for meaningful improvement in the model's performance? Motivated by techniques from boosting, we introduce the concept of~post-training corrections. This approach enhances a trained forecaster by sequentially applying a carefully selected set of corrections to its predictions. Our method offers a lightweight, model-agnostic, and scalable strategy to improve forecasting performance in practical settings. We provide theoretical foundations for the approach, starting with the affine correction case, and analyze the expected performance gains and computational costs in more general settings. Across a range of benchmark datasets, our method consistently delivers up to a 30% improvement in forecasting accuracy over existing state-of-the-art models, with minimal computational overhead.