# Deep Learning-Based Forecasting of Boarding Patient Counts to Address ED Overcrowding

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.14765 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.14765/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10902/) (2019)
- [N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10437/) (2019)
- [Large Batch Optimization for Deep Learning: Training BERT in 76 minutes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.00962/) (2019)
- [A Transformer-based Framework for Multivariate Time Series Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02803/) (2020)
- [fastai: A Layered API for Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04688/) (2020)
- [Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.05522/) (2021)
- [An Artificial Intelligence-Based Framework for Predicting Emergency Department Overcrowding: Development and Evaluation Study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.18578/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This study presents a deep learning-based framework for predicting emergency department (ED) boarding counts six hours in advance using only operational and contextual data, without patient-level information. Data from ED tracking systems, inpatient census, weather, holidays, and local events were aggregated hourly and processed with comprehensive feature engineering. The mean ED boarding count was 28.7 (standard deviation = 11.2). Multiple deep learning models, including ResNetPlus, TSTPlus, and TSiTPlus, were trained and optimized using Optuna, with TSTPlus achieving the best results (mean absolute error = 4.30, mean squared error = 29.47, R2 = 0.79). The framework accurately forecasted boarding counts, including during extreme periods, and demonstrated that broader input features improve predictive accuracy. This approach supports proactive hospital management and offers a practical method for mitigating ED overcrowding.