# CONSIGN: Conformal Segmentation Informed by Spatial Groupings via Decomposition

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.14113 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.14113/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 32 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 32)

- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Microsoft COCO: Common Objects in Context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1405.0312/) (2014)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Encoder-Decoder with Atrous Separable Convolution for Semantic Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.02611/) (2018)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Rethinking Atrous Convolution for Semantic Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.05587/) (2017)
- [An Introduction to Variational Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02691/) (2019)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coverage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.02544/) (2020)
- [Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.00170/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.14193/) (2020)
- [Conformal Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.02814/) (2022)
- [A Probabilistic U-Net for Segmentation of Ambiguous Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.05034/) (2018)
- [Confidence Calibration and Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Deep Medical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.13273/) (2019)
- [Multivariate mixture model for myocardium segmentation combining multi-source images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.08820/) (2016)
- [PHiSeg: Capturing Uncertainty in Medical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.04045/) (2019)
- [Stochastic Segmentation Networks: Modelling Spatially Correlated Aleatoric Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.06015/) (2020)
- [Trustworthy clinical AI solutions: a unified review of uncertainty quantification in deep learning models for medical image analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03736/) (2022)
- [BayeSeg: Bayesian Modeling for Medical Image Segmentation with Interpretable Generalizability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.01710/) (2023)
- [A review of uncertainty quantification in medical image analysis: probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06873/) (2023)
- [Predictive Inference with Feature Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.00173/) (2022)
- [Principal Uncertainty Quantification with Spatial Correlation for Image Restoration Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10124/) (2023)
- [Conformal Semantic Image Segmentation: Post-hoc Quantification of Predictive Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.05145/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Quantification via Neural Posterior Principal Components](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.15533/) (2023)
- [Automatically Adaptive Conformal Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.17819/) (2024)
- [Kandinsky Conformal Prediction: Efficient Calibration of Image Segmentation Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.11837/) (2023)
- [Conformal Prediction for Image Segmentation Using Morphological Prediction Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.05618/) (2025)
- [Conformal Performance Range Prediction for Segmentation Output Quality Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13307/) (2024)
- [Robust Conformal Prediction Using Privileged Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.05405/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Conformal Prediction Sets for Instance Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.10045/) (2026)
- [ConRad: Efficient Conformal Prediction for Radiomics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.08084/) (2026)
- [Adaptive Computation with Conformal Certification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.19189/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Most machine learning-based image segmentation models produce pixel-wise confidence scores that represent the model's predicted probability for each class label at every pixel. While this information can be particularly valuable in high-stakes domains such as medical imaging, these scores are heuristic in nature and do not constitute rigorous quantitative uncertainty estimates. Conformal prediction (CP) provides a principled framework for transforming heuristic confidence scores into statistically valid uncertainty estimates. However, applying CP directly to image segmentation ignores the spatial correlations between pixels, a fundamental characteristic of image data. This can result in overly conservative and less interpretable uncertainty estimates. To address this, we propose CONSIGN (Conformal Segmentation Informed by Spatial Groupings via Decomposition), a CP-based method that incorporates spatial correlations to improve uncertainty quantification in image segmentation. Our method generates meaningful prediction sets that come with user-specified, high-probability error guarantees. It is compatible with any pre-trained segmentation model capable of generating multiple sample outputs. We evaluate CONSIGN against two CP baselines across three medical imaging datasets and two COCO dataset subsets, using three different pre-trained segmentation models. Results demonstrate that accounting for spatial structure significantly improves performance across multiple metrics and enhances the quality of uncertainty estimates.