# Rethinking Irregular Time Series Forecasting: A Simple yet Effective Baseline

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.11250 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.11250/

## Key facts

- Cited by 55 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 31 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 31)

- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [A Comprehensive Survey on Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.00596/) (2019)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [Recurrent Neural Networks for Multivariate Time Series with Missing Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.01865/) (2016)
- [Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Irregular Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.08926/) (2020)
- [Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network for Multivariate Time-series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07719/) (2021)
- [TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20150/) (2024)
- [Multi-Time Attention Networks for Irregularly Sampled Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.10318/) (2021)
- [GRU-ODE-Bayes: Continuous modeling of sporadically-observed time series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.12374/) (2019)
- [Set Functions for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.12064/) (2019)
- [FourierGNN: Rethinking Multivariate Time Series Forecasting from a Pure Graph Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.06190/) (2023)
- [Graph-Guided Network for Irregularly Sampled Multivariate Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.05357/) (2021)
- [SparseTSF: Modeling Long-term Time Series Forecasting with 1k Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00946/) (2024)
- [CycleNet: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting through Modeling Periodic Patterns](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.18479/) (2024)
- [Modeling Irregular Time Series with Continuous Recurrent Units](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.11344/) (2021)
- [Neural Flows: Efficient Alternative to Neural ODEs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.13040/) (2021)
- [ContiFormer: Continuous-Time Transformer for Irregular Time Series Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10635/) (2024)
- [A Comprehensive Survey of Deep Learning for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: A Channel Strategy Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.10721/) (2025)
- [Warpformer: A Multi-scale Modeling Approach for Irregular Clinical Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09368/) (2023)
- [Generative Modeling of Regular and Irregular Time Series Data via Koopman VAEs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02619/) (2023)
- [Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Models for Irregularly-Sampled Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.11308/) (2023)
- [Are Self-Attentions Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.16877/) (2024)
- [CrossFormer++: A Versatile Vision Transformer Hinging on Cross-scale Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.06908/) (2023)
- [SSD-TS: Exploring the Potential of Linear State Space Models for Diffusion Models in Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13338/) (2024)
- [Graph Neural Flows for Unveiling Systemic Interactions Among Irregularly Sampled Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.14030/) (2024)
- [Temporal Graph ODEs for Irregularly-Sampled Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.19508/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 55)

- [TAB: Unified Benchmarking of Time Series Anomaly Detection Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.18046/) (2025)
- [DBLoss: Decomposition-based Loss Function for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.23672/) (2025)
- [OFFSET: Segmentation-based Focus Shift Revision for Composed Image Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.05631/) (2025)
- [Enhancing Time Series Forecasting through Selective Representation Spaces: A Patch Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.14510/) (2025)
- [Aurora: Towards Universal Generative Multimodal Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.22295/) (2025)
- [FastVMT: Eliminating Redundancy in Video Motion Transfer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.05551/) (2026)
- [Bridging Past and Future: Distribution-Aware Alignment for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.14181/) (2025)
- [GCGNet: Graph-Consistent Generative Network for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.08032/) (2026)
- [CRISP-SAM2: SAM2 with Cross-Modal Interaction and Semantic Prompting for Multi-Organ Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.23121/) (2025)
- [Bridging Time and Frequency: A Joint Modeling Framework for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.00582/) (2026)
- [ASTGI: Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Graph Interactions for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.23313/) (2025)
- [Unlocking the Value of Text: Event-Driven Reasoning and Multi-Level Alignment for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.15452/) (2026)
- [TimeSAF: Towards LLM-Guided Semantic Asynchronous Fusion for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.12648/) (2026)
- [Diffusion-Based Image Editing: An Unforeseen Adversary to Robust Invisible Watermarks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.05598/) (2025)
- [FLAME: Flow Enhanced Legendre Memory Models for General Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.14253/) (2025)
- [PHAT: Modeling Period Heterogeneity for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.00654/) (2026)
- [Towards Multimodal Time Series Anomaly Detection with Semantic Alignment and Condensed Interaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.21612/) (2026)
- [Task-Aware Mixture-of-Experts for Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.22279/) (2025)
- [Entropy Guided Dynamic Patch Segmentation for Time Series Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.26157/) (2025)
- [TimeMar: Multi-Scale Autoregressive Modeling for Unconditional Time Series Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.11184/) (2026)
- [MEMTS: Internalizing Domain Knowledge via Parameterized Memory for Retrieval-Free Domain Adaptation of Time Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13783/) (2026)
- [Vanishing Watermarks: Diffusion-Based Image Editing Undermines Robust Invisible Watermarking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.20680/) (2026)
- [TiWeaver: Unified Temporal Dynamics Modeling via Contextual Patching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.03121/) (2026)
- [WPBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Wind Power Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.24444/) (2026)
- [Securing Time Integrity in Energy IoT Against Clock Drift and Y2K38 Failures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.23147/) (2026)
- [SEER: Transformer-based Robust Time Series Forecasting via Automated Patch Enhancement and Replacement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.00589/) (2026)
- [ST-EVO: Towards Generative Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Multi-Agent Communication Topologies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.14681/) (2026)
- [MM-ISTS: Cooperating Irregularly Sampled Time Series Forecasting with Multimodal Vision-Text LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.05997/) (2026)
- [Editing on the Generative Manifold: A Theoretical and Empirical Study of General Diffusion-Based Image Editing Trade-offs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.29736/) (2026)
- [Auto-Configured Networks for Multi-Scale Multi-Output Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.07610/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The forecasting of irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) is crucial in key areas such as healthcare, biomechanics, climate science, and astronomy. However, achieving accurate and practical predictions is challenging due to two main factors. First, the inherent irregularity and data missingness in irregular time series make modeling difficult. Second, most existing methods are typically complex and resource-intensive. In this study, we propose a general framework called APN to address these challenges. Specifically, we design a novel Time-Aware Patch Aggregation (TAPA) module that achieves adaptive patching. By learning dynamically adjustable patch boundaries and a time-aware weighted averaging strategy, TAPA transforms the original irregular sequences into high-quality, regularized representations in a channel-independent manner. Additionally, we use a simple query module to effectively integrate historical information while maintaining the model's efficiency. Finally, predictions are made by a shallow MLP. Experimental results on multiple real-world datasets show that APN outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in both efficiency and accuracy.