# Uncertainty-Aware Surrogate-based Amortized Bayesian Inference for Computationally Expensive Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.08683 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.08683/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 39 of its 78 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 39)

- [Deep Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06114/) (2017)
- [Normalizing Flows for Probabilistic Modeling and Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02762/) (2019)
- [Neural Spline Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.04032/) (2019)
- [The frontier of simulation-based inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.01429/) (2019)
- [Sequential Neural Likelihood: Fast Likelihood-free Inference with Autoregressive Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.07226/) (2018)
- [Automatic Posterior Transformation for Likelihood-Free Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07488/) (2019)
- [Flexible statistical inference for mechanistic models of neural dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.01861/) (2017)
- [Benchmarking Simulation-Based Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.04653/) (2021)
- [Guided Image Generation with Conditional Invertible Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02392/) (2019)
- [BayesFlow: Learning complex stochastic models with invertible neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.06281/) (2020)
- [Validating Bayesian Inference Algorithms with Simulation-Based Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.06788/) (2018)
- [Flow Matching for Scalable Simulation-Based Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17161/) (2023)
- [Rank-normalization, folding, and localization: An improved widehatR for assessing convergence of MCMC](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.08008/) (2019)
- [Bayesian Optimization for Likelihood-Free Inference of Simulator-Based Statistical Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1501.03291/) (2015)
- [Likelihood-free inference with emulator networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.09294/) (2018)
- [Detecting Model Misspecification in Amortized Bayesian Inference with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.08866/) (2021)
- [Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansions: Literature Survey and Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.01290/) (2020)
- [Robust Bayesian Inference for Simulator-based Models via the MMD Posterior Bootstrap](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.04744/) (2022)
- [Truncated proposals for scalable and hassle-free simulation-based inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.04815/) (2022)
- [JANA: Jointly Amortized Neural Approximation of Complex Bayesian Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09125/) (2023)
- [Solving inverse problems using conditional invertible neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.15849/) (2020)
- [BayesFlow: Amortized Bayesian Workflows With Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.16015/) (2023)
- [Bayesian Synthetic Likelihood](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.05120/) (2023)
- [Graphical Test for Discrete Uniformity and its Applications in Goodness of Fit Evaluation and Multiple Sample Comparison](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.10522/) (2021)
- [Consistency Models for Scalable and Fast Simulation-Based Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.05440/) (2023)
- [Conditional Invertible Neural Networks for Medical Imaging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14520/) (2021)
- [Simulation-Based Calibration Checking for Bayesian Computation: The Choice of Test Quantities Shapes Sensitivity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.02383/) (2022)
- [OutbreakFlow: Model-based Bayesian inference of disease outbreak dynamics with invertible neural networks and its application to the COVID-19 pandemics in Germany](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.00300/) (2020)
- [On the Universality of Volume-Preserving and Coupling-Based Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.06578/) (2024)
- [The Statistical Accuracy of Neural Posterior and Likelihood Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.12068/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [From Mice to Trains: Amortized Bayesian Inference on Graph Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.02241/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Bayesian inference typically relies on a large number of model evaluations to estimate posterior distributions. Established methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) can become computationally challenging. While ABI enables fast inference after training, generating sufficient training data still requires thousands of model simulations, which is infeasible for expensive models. Surrogate models offer a solution by providing approximate simulations at a lower computational cost, allowing the generation of large data sets for training. However, the introduced approximation errors and uncertainties can lead to overconfident posterior estimates. To address this, we propose Uncertainty-Aware Surrogate-based Amortized Bayesian Inference (UA-SABI) -- a framework that combines surrogate modeling and ABI while explicitly quantifying and propagating surrogate uncertainties through the inference pipeline. Our experiments show that this approach enables reliable, fast, and repeated Bayesian inference for computationally expensive models, even under tight time constraints.