# Scaling Laws for Speculative Decoding

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.07858 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.07858/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 32 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 May 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)
- Efficient LLM inference and serving / [Speculative decoding](https://mlsanity.com/inference/speculative-decoding/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 32)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15556/) (2022)
- [Fast Inference from Transformers via Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.17192/) (2022)
- [Accelerating Large Language Model Decoding with Speculative Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01318/) (2023)
- [Medusa: Simple LLM Inference Acceleration Framework with Multiple Decoding Heads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10774/) (2024)
- [Abstractive Text Summarization Using Sequence-to-Sequence RNNs and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.06023/) (2016)
- [EAGLE: Speculative Sampling Requires Rethinking Feature Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.15077/) (2024)
- [EAGLE-2: Faster Inference of Language Models with Dynamic Draft Trees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16858/) (2024)
- [Better & Faster Large Language Models via Multi-token Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.19737/) (2024)
- [EAGLE-3: Scaling up Inference Acceleration of Large Language Models via Training-Time Test](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01840/) (2025)
- [Blockwise Parallel Decoding for Deep Autoregressive Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.03115/) (2018)
- [Break the Sequential Dependency of LLM Inference Using Lookahead Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02057/) (2024)
- [DistillSpec: Improving Speculative Decoding via Knowledge Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08461/) (2023)
- [Online Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07177/) (2023)
- [Sequoia: Scalable, Robust, and Hardware-aware Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12374/) (2024)
- [CLLMs: Consistency Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.00835/) (2024)
- [Learning Harmonized Representations for Speculative Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.15766/) (2024)
- [Lookahead: An Inference Acceleration Framework for Large Language Model with Lossless Generation Accuracy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.12728/) (2023)
- [Multi-Level Optimal Transport for Universal Cross-Tokenizer Knowledge Distillation on Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.14528/) (2024)
- [Sinkhorn Distance Minimization for Knowledge Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17110/) (2024)
- [Clover: Regressive Lightweight Speculative Decoding with Sequential Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00263/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [VLA-AN: An Efficient and Onboard Vision-Language-Action Framework for Aerial Navigation in Complex Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.15258/) (2025)
- [Guided Speculative Inference for Efficient Test-Time Alignment of LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.04118/) (2025)
- [Geometry-Aware Dataset Condensation for Diffusion Model Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.05883/) (2026)
- [DiffWAM: A Fast and Efficient Navigation World Action Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.39763/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The escalating demand for efficient decoding in large language models (LLMs) is particularly critical for reasoning-intensive architectures like OpenAI-o3 and DeepSeek-R1, which depend on extended chain-of-thought reasoning. This study investigates speculative decoding techniques through dense LLM architectures to establish foundational insights for accelerating reasoning tasks. While speculative decoding methods leveraging parallel draft-verification cycles have emerged as promising acceleration techniques, the scaling laws governing decoding efficiency remain under-explored compared to conventional backbone LLMs developed through Pretraining->SFT->RLHF training paradigms. In this work, we discover Log-linear Scaling Laws (Theorem 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3) governing draft model acceptance rate (or decoding speed) across three dimensions: pretraining token volume, draft model capacity, and decoding batch size. Building on these laws, we achieve Scylla, which coordinates multi-dimensional scaling for popular LLMs (Llama2/3, Qwen2.5). Empirical validation shows Scylla achieves 1.5-2.2 higher acceptance rate than EAGLE2 and 0.3 higher than EAGLE3 at temperature T = 0, with peak performance gains on summarization and QA tasks (Figure 2). Industrial inference engine deployments demonstrate 2X decoding throughput improvements over EAGLE2 (Table 5), validating the transformative potential of systematic scaling for efficient LLM inference. Code will be released later.