# Always Tell Me The Odds: Fine-grained Conditional Probability Estimation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.01595 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.01595/

## Key facts

- Cited by 9 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 90 of its 135 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 May 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 90)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06180/) (2023)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [HellaSwag: Can a Machine Really Finish Your Sentence?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07830/) (2019)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [A Broad-Coverage Challenge Corpus for Sentence Understanding through Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.05426/) (2017)
- [Fine-Tuning Language Models from Human Preferences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.08593/) (2019)
- [A large annotated corpus for learning natural language inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1508.05326/) (2015)
- [Improving Factuality and Reasoning in Language Models through Multiagent Debate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14325/) (2023)
- [A Survey on LLM-as-a-Judge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.15594/) (2024)
- [Calibrate Before Use: Improving Few-Shot Performance of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09690/) (2021)
- [s1: Simple test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19393/) (2025)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [STaR: Bootstrapping Reasoning With Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.14465/) (2022)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Adversarial NLI: A New Benchmark for Natural Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.14599/) (2019)
- [Deduplicating Training Data Makes Language Models Better](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.06499/) (2021)
- [Measuring Calibration in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.01685/) (2019)
- [How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.00955/) (2020)
- [Training Language Models to Self-Correct via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12917/) (2024)
- [Dataset Cartography: Mapping and Diagnosing Datasets with Training Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.10795/) (2020)
- [Calibration of Pre-trained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.07892/) (2020)
- [Verified Uncertainty Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.10155/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Exploring Probabilistic Reasoning Capabilities of LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.10739/) (2025)
- [MoCo: A One-Stop Shop for Model Collaboration Research](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.21257/) (2026)
- [Unified Multimodal Uncertain Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.08701/) (2026)
- [Process Supervision of Confidence Margin for Calibrated LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.23333/) (2026)
- [Scaling Participation in Modular AI Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.07812/) (2026)
- [Seeing Through the MiRAGE: Evaluating Multimodal Retrieval Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.24870/) (2025)
- [Humans and LLMs Diverge on Probabilistic Inferences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.23546/) (2026)
- [FrankenReport: Early Exiting in Long-Form Generation Using Expected Value of Computation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.06320/) (2026)
- [PRISM-BN: A Controlled Corpus and Benchmark for Text-to-Parameterized Bayesian Network Extraction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.21673/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.