# Large Language Models for Drug Overdose Prediction from Longitudinal Medical Records

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.11792 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.11792/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 24 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 Apr 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07682/) (2022)
- [TabLLM: Few-shot Classification of Tabular Data with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.10723/) (2022)
- [Can Foundation Models Wrangle Your Data?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09911/) (2022)
- [Large Language Models are Few-Shot Health Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.15525/) (2023)
- [Dipole: Diagnosis Prediction in Healthcare via Attention-based Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.05764/) (2017)
- [Table Meets LLM: Can Large Language Models Understand Structured Table Data? A Benchmark and Empirical Study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13062/) (2023)
- [Tabular Representation, Noisy Operators, and Impacts on Table Structure Understanding Tasks in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10358/) (2023)
- [TAP4LLM: Table Provider on Sampling, Augmenting, and Packing Semi-structured Data for Large Language Model Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.09039/) (2023)
- [MediTab: Scaling Medical Tabular Data Predictors via Data Consolidation, Enrichment, and Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.12081/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The ability to predict drug overdose risk from a patient's medical records is crucial for timely intervention and prevention. Traditional machine learning models have shown promise in analyzing longitudinal medical records for this task. However, recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) offer an opportunity to enhance prediction performance by leveraging their ability to process long textual data and their inherent prior knowledge across diverse tasks. In this study, we assess the effectiveness of Open AI's GPT-4o LLM in predicting drug overdose events using patients' longitudinal insurance claims records. We evaluate its performance in both fine-tuned and zero-shot settings, comparing them to strong traditional machine learning methods as baselines. Our results show that LLMs not only outperform traditional models in certain settings but can also predict overdose risk in a zero-shot setting without task-specific training. These findings highlight the potential of LLMs in clinical decision support, particularly for drug overdose risk prediction.