# Can Competition Enhance the Proficiency of Agents Powered by Large Language Models in the Realm of News-driven Time Series Forecasting?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.10210 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.10210/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Financial trading and forecasting agents, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 24 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Apr 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Financial trading and forecasting agents](https://mlsanity.com/agents/financial-trading-and-forecasting-agents/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Improving Factuality and Reasoning in Language Models through Multiagent Debate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14325/) (2023)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [The Rise and Potential of Large Language Model Based Agents: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.07864/) (2023)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [M3-Embedding: Multi-Linguality, Multi-Functionality, Multi-Granularity Text Embeddings Through Self-Knowledge Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03216/) (2024)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11939/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07820/) (2023)
- [Self-collaboration Code Generation via ChatGPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.07590/) (2023)
- [Exploring Collaboration Mechanisms for LLM Agents: A Social Psychology View](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02124/) (2023)
- [TEST: Text Prototype Aligned Embedding to Activate LLM's Ability for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08241/) (2023)
- [AgentScope: A Flexible yet Robust Multi-Agent Platform](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14034/) (2024)
- [Examining Inter-Consistency of Large Language Models Collaboration: An In-depth Analysis via Debate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.11595/) (2023)
- [CompeteAI: Understanding the Competition Dynamics in Large Language Model-based Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.17512/) (2023)
- [LLM-Based Agent Society Investigation: Collaboration and Confrontation in Avalon Gameplay](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.14985/) (2023)
- [TPTU: Large Language Model-based AI Agents for Task Planning and Tool Usage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03427/) (2023)
- [Time Series Forecasting with LLMs: Understanding and Enhancing Model Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10835/) (2024)
- [Shall We Team Up: Exploring Spontaneous Cooperation of Competing LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12327/) (2024)
- [Exploring the Intersection of Large Language Models and Agent-Based Modeling via Prompt Engineering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.07411/) (2023)
- [It's Not Easy Being Wrong: Large Language Models Struggle with Process of Elimination Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07532/) (2023)
- [On Information Asymmetry in Competitive Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning: Convergence and Optimality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.10901/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [A Survey of Reasoning and Agentic Systems in Time Series with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.11575/) (2025)
- [TimeClaw: A Time-Series AI Agent with Exploratory Execution Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.10038/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Multi-agents-based news-driven time series forecasting is considered as a potential paradigm shift in the era of large language models (LLMs). The challenge of this task lies in measuring the influences of different news events towards the fluctuations of time series. This requires agents to possess stronger abilities of innovative thinking and the identifying misleading logic. However, the existing multi-agent discussion framework has limited enhancement on time series prediction in terms of optimizing these two capabilities. Inspired by the role of competition in fostering innovation, this study embeds a competition mechanism within the multi-agent discussion to enhance agents' capability of generating innovative thoughts. Furthermore, to bolster the model's proficiency in identifying misleading information, we incorporate a fine-tuned small-scale LLM model within the reflective stage, offering auxiliary decision-making support. Experimental results confirm that the competition can boost agents' capacity for innovative thinking, which can significantly improve the performances of time series prediction. Similar to the findings of social science, the intensity of competition within this framework can influence the performances of agents, providing a new perspective for studying LLMs-based multi-agent systems.