# TianQuan-S2S: A Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Global Weather Model via Incorporate Climatology State

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.09940 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.09940/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Apr 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.10343/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench: A benchmark dataset for data-driven weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00469/) (2020)
- [GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.12794/) (2022)
- [FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12873/) (2023)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15560/) (2023)
- [Densely Connected Pyramid Dehazing Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.08396/) (2018)
- [ChaosBench: A Multi-Channel, Physics-Based Benchmark for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00712/) (2024)
- [SwinVRNN: A Data-Driven Ensemble Forecasting Model via Learned Distribution Perturbation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13158/) (2022)
- [Prithvi WxC: Foundation Model for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.13598/) (2024)
- [FengWu-GHR: Learning the Kilometer-scale Medium-range Global Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00059/) (2024)
- [Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics in a Machine Learning Earth System Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.08632/) (2024)
- [FuXi Weather: A data-to-forecast machine learning system for global weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.05472/) (2024)
- [Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecasting via Machine Learning: Challenges, Analysis, and Advances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.07972/) (2020)
- [CirT: Global Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasting with Geometry-inspired Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.19750/) (2025)
- [GyroFlow+: Gyroscope-Guided Unsupervised Deep Homography and Optical Flow Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.10018/) (2023)
- [On some limitations of data-driven weather forecasting models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.08473/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [WeatherSyn: An Instruction Tuning MLLM For Weather Forecasting Report Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.07522/) (2026)
- [CrossEarth-Gate: Fisher-Guided Adaptive Tuning Engine for Efficient Adaptation of Cross-Domain Remote Sensing Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.20302/) (2025)
- [S2S-JEPA: Predicting the Predictable at Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.03106/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecasting is vital for decision-making in agriculture, energy production, and emergency management. However, it remains a challenging and underexplored problem due to the chaotic nature of the weather system. Recent data-driven studies have shown promising results, but their performance is limited by the inadequate incorporation of climate states and a model tendency to degrade, progressively losing fine-scale details and yielding over-smoothed forecasts. To overcome these limitations, we propose TianQuan-S2S, a global S2S forecasting model that integrates initial weather states with climatological means via incorporating climatology into patch embedding and enhancing variability capture through an uncertainty-augmented Transformer. Extensive experiments on the Earth Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) reanalysis dataset demonstrate that our model yields a significant improvement in both deterministic and ensemble forecasting over the climatology mean, traditional numerical methods, and data-driven models. Ablation studies empirically show the effectiveness of our model designs. Remarkably, our model outperforms skillful numerical ECMWF-S2S and advanced data-driven Fuxi-S2S in key meteorological variables. The code implementation can be found in https://github.com/zhangminglang42/TianQuan.