# Forecasting Conversation Derailments Through Generation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.08905 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.08905/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Apr 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06180/) (2023)
- [BART: Denoising Sequence-to-Sequence Pre-training for Natural Language Generation, Translation, and Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.13461/) (2019)
- [Conversations Gone Awry: Detecting Early Signs of Conversational Failure](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.05345/) (2018)
- [Trouble on the Horizon: Forecasting the Derailment of Online Conversations as they Develop](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.01362/) (2019)
- [Before Name-calling: Dynamics and Triggers of Ad Hominem Fallacies in Web Argumentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.06613/) (2018)
- [Dynamic Forecasting of Conversation Derailment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.05111/) (2021)
- [How Did We Get Here? Summarizing Conversation Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.19007/) (2024)
- [Social Orientation: A New Feature for Dialogue Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04770/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Before the Outrage: Challenges and Advances in Predicting Online Antisocial Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.20614/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Forecasting conversation derailment can be useful in real-world settings such as online content moderation, conflict resolution, and business negotiations. However, despite language models' success at identifying offensive speech present in conversations, they struggle to forecast future conversation derailments. In contrast to prior work that predicts conversation outcomes solely based on the past conversation history, our approach samples multiple future conversation trajectories conditioned on existing conversation history using a fine-tuned LLM. It predicts the conversation outcome based on the consensus of these trajectories. We also experimented with leveraging socio-linguistic attributes, which reflect turn-level conversation dynamics, as guidance when generating future conversations. Our method of future conversation trajectories surpasses state-of-the-art results on English conversation derailment prediction benchmarks and demonstrates significant accuracy gains in ablation studies.