# Probabilistic QoS Metric Forecasting in Delay-Tolerant Networks Using Conditional Diffusion Models on Latent Dynamics

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.08821 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.08821/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Apr 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [DiffWave: A Versatile Diffusion Model for Audio Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.09761/) (2020)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Time Series Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13408/) (2020)
- [Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12072/) (2021)
- [Deep Factors for Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.12417/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [EMFusion: Uncertainty-Aware Conditional Diffusion Model for Multivariate Narrow-band Exposure Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.15067/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Active QoS metric prediction, commonly employed in the maintenance and operation of DTN, could enhance network performance regarding latency, throughput, energy consumption, and dependability. Naturally formulated as a multivariate time series forecasting problem, it attracts substantial research efforts. Traditional mean regression methods for time series forecasting cannot capture the data complexity adequately, resulting in deteriorated performance in operational tasks in DTNs such as routing. This paper formulates the prediction of QoS metrics in DTN as a probabilistic forecasting problem on multivariate time series, where one could quantify the uncertainty of forecasts by characterizing the distribution of these samples. The proposed approach hires diffusion models and incorporates the latent temporal dynamics of non-stationary and multi-mode data into them. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach by showing that it outperforms the popular probabilistic time series forecasting methods.