# Explainable AI-Based Interface System for Weather Forecasting Model

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.00795 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.00795/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Apr 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Grad-CAM: Visual Explanations from Deep Networks via Gradient-based Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02391/) (2016)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Axiomatic Attribution for Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01365/) (2017)
- [Deep Inside Convolutional Networks: Visualising Image Classification Models and Saliency Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6034/) (2013)
- [Explaining Explanations: An Overview of Interpretability of Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.00069/) (2018)
- [Evaluating the visualization of what a Deep Neural Network has learned](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1509.06321/) (2015)
- [Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radar](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00954/) (2021)
- [From Anecdotal Evidence to Quantitative Evaluation Methods: A Systematic Review on Evaluating Explainable AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.08164/) (2022)
- [Questioning the AI: Informing Design Practices for Explainable AI User Experiences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.02478/) (2020)
- [Evaluating and Aggregating Feature-based Model Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.00631/) (2020)
- [MetNet: A Neural Weather Model for Precipitation Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.12140/) (2020)
- [Human-Centered Explainable AI (XAI): From Algorithms to User Experiences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.10790/) (2021)
- [Local Temperature Scaling for Probability Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.05105/) (2020)
- [A Comprehensive Taxonomy for Explainable Artificial Intelligence: A Systematic Survey of Surveys on Methods and Concepts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.07190/) (2021)
- [Question-Driven Design Process for Explainable AI User Experiences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.03483/) (2021)
- [The Need for Ethical, Responsible, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Sciences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.08453/) (2021)
- [Effective Training Strategies for Deep-learning-based Precipitation Nowcasting and Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.10555/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Manifold-Aligned Guided Integrated Gradients for Reliable Feature Attribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.02167/) (2026)
- [Spectral Integrated Gradients for Coarse-to-Fine Feature Attribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.19607/) (2026)
- [Diffusion Integrated Gradients: Controllable Path Generation for Flexible Feature Attribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.22314/) (2026)
- [Explanation User Interfaces: A Systematic Literature Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.20085/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Machine learning (ML) is becoming increasingly popular in meteorological decision-making. Although the literature on explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is growing steadily, user-centered XAI studies have not extend to this domain yet. This study defines three requirements for explanations of black-box models in meteorology through user studies: statistical model performance for different rainfall scenarios to identify model bias, model reasoning, and the confidence of model outputs. Appropriate XAI methods are mapped to each requirement, and the generated explanations are tested quantitatively and qualitatively. An XAI interface system is designed based on user feedback. The results indicate that the explanations increase decision utility and user trust. Users prefer intuitive explanations over those based on XAI algorithms even for potentially easy-to-recognize examples. These findings can provide evidence for future research on user-centered XAI algorithms, as well as a basis to improve the usability of AI systems in practice.