# Spatio-temporal Prediction of Fine-Grained Origin-Destination Matrices with Applications in Ridesharing

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.24237 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24237/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 44 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 31 Mar 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
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- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [Deep Spatio-Temporal Residual Networks for Citywide Crowd Flows Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.00081/) (2016)
- [Spatial-Temporal Fusion Graph Neural Networks for Traffic Flow Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.09641/) (2020)
- [Deep Multi-View Spatial-Temporal Network for Taxi Demand Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.08714/) (2018)
- [Do Transformer Modifications Transfer Across Implementations and Applications?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11972/) (2021)
- [Learning Traffic as Images: A Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Large-Scale Transportation Network Speed Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.04245/) (2017)
- [Bike Flow Prediction with Multi-Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.10934/) (2018)
- [Contextualized Spatial-Temporal Network for Taxi Origin-Destination Demand Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.06335/) (2019)
- [Uncertainty Quantification of Sparse Travel Demand Prediction with Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05908/) (2022)
- [Predicting origin-destination ride-sourcing demand with a spatio-temporal encoder-decoder residual multi-graph convolutional network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09103/) (2019)
- [Statistical Deep Learning for Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.02218/) (2022)
- [Statistical inference of probabilistic origin-destination demand using day-to-day traffic data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.10068/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate spatial-temporal prediction of network-based travelers' requests is crucial for the effective policy design of ridesharing platforms. Having knowledge of the total demand between various locations in the upcoming time slots enables platforms to proactively prepare adequate supplies, thereby increasing the likelihood of fulfilling travelers' requests and redistributing idle drivers to areas with high potential demand to optimize the global supply-demand equilibrium. This paper delves into the prediction of Origin-Destination (OD) demands at a fine-grained spatial level, especially when confronted with an expansive set of local regions. While this task holds immense practical value, it remains relatively unexplored within the research community. To fill this gap, we introduce a novel prediction model called OD-CED, which comprises an unsupervised space coarsening technique to alleviate data sparsity and an encoder-decoder architecture to capture both semantic and geographic dependencies. Through practical experimentation, OD-CED has demonstrated remarkable results. It achieved an impressive reduction of up to 45% reduction in root-mean-square error and 60% in weighted mean absolute percentage error over traditional statistical methods when dealing with OD matrices exhibiting a sparsity exceeding 90%.