# Diffusion Counterfactuals for Image Regressors

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.20595 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20595/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Diffusion foundations and sampling, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 33 of its 58 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Mar 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Diffusion foundations and sampling](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/diffusion-foundations-and-sampling/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 33)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Densely Connected Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.06993/) (2016)
- [Towards Deep Learning Models Resistant to Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.06083/) (2017)
- [A Style-Based Generator Architecture for Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.04948/) (2018)
- [Intriguing properties of neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6199/) (2013)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [Axiomatic Attribution for Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01365/) (2017)
- [Progressive Growing of GANs for Improved Quality, Stability, and Variation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10196/) (2017)
- [Learning Deep Features for Discriminative Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.04150/) (2015)
- [Visualizing and Understanding Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1311.2901/) (2013)
- [RePaint: Inpainting using Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.09865/) (2022)
- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [VGGFace2: A dataset for recognising faces across pose and age](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.08092/) (2017)
- [Diffusion Autoencoders: Toward a Meaningful and Decodable Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.15640/) (2021)
- [Unmasking Clever Hans Predictors and Assessing What Machines Really Learn](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10178/) (2019)
- [Diffusion Models already have a Semantic Latent Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.10960/) (2022)
- [Opportunities and Challenges in Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI): A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11371/) (2020)
- [An Edit Friendly DDPM Noise Space: Inversion and Manipulations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.06140/) (2023)
- [EditGAN: High-Precision Semantic Image Editing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.03186/) (2021)
- [Diffusion Models for Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15636/) (2022)
- [Beyond Trivial Counterfactual Explanations with Diverse Valuable Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.10226/) (2021)
- [Navigating the GAN Parameter Space for Semantic Image Editing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13786/) (2020)
- [Adversarial Counterfactual Visual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.09962/) (2023)
- [STEEX: Steering Counterfactual Explanations with Semantics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.09094/) (2021)
- [Diffeomorphic Counterfactuals with Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.05075/) (2022)
- [Text-to-Image Models for Counterfactual Explanations: a Black-Box Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.07944/) (2023)
- [Counterfactual Explanations for Arbitrary Regression Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.15212/) (2021)
- [FP-Age: Leveraging Face Parsing Attention for Facial Age Estimation in the Wild](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.11145/) (2021)
- [Understanding and Comparing Deep Neural Networks for Age and Gender Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.07689/) (2017)
- [Towards Fixing Clever-Hans Predictors with Counterfactual Knowledge Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01011/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Towards Desiderata-Driven Design of Visual Counterfactual Explainers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.14698/) (2025)
- [Mitigating Clever Hans Strategies in Image Classifiers through Generating Counterexamples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.17524/) (2025)
- [Visual Disentangled Diffusion Autoencoders: Scalable Counterfactual Generation for Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.21851/) (2026)
- [SCE-LITE-HQ: Smooth visual counterfactual explanations with generative foundation models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.17048/) (2026)
- [Towards Fast and Disentangled Counterfactuals for Visual Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.00895/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Counterfactual explanations have been successfully applied to create human interpretable explanations for various black-box models. They are handy for tasks in the image domain, where the quality of the explanations benefits from recent advances in generative models. Although counterfactual explanations have been widely applied to classification models, their application to regression tasks remains underexplored. We present two methods to create counterfactual explanations for image regression tasks using diffusion-based generative models to address challenges in sparsity and quality: 1) one based on a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model that operates directly in pixel-space and 2) another based on a Diffusion Autoencoder operating in latent space. Both produce realistic, semantic, and smooth counterfactuals on CelebA-HQ and a synthetic data set, providing easily interpretable insights into the decision-making process of the regression model and reveal spurious correlations. We find that for regression counterfactuals, changes in features depend on the region of the predicted value. Large semantic changes are needed for significant changes in predicted values, making it harder to find sparse counterfactuals than with classifiers. Moreover, pixel space counterfactuals are more sparse while latent space counterfactuals are of higher quality and allow bigger semantic changes.