# A novel forecasting framework combining virtual samples and enhanced Transformer models for tourism demand forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.19423 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.19423/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 58 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Mar 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Improved Training of Wasserstein GANs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.00028/) (2017)
- [Unsupervised Representation Learning with Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.06434/) (2015)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Real-valued (Medical) Time Series Generation with Recurrent Conditional GANs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02633/) (2017)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks for Predictive Learning in Urban Computing: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.14483/) (2023)
- [C-RNN-GAN: Continuous recurrent neural networks with adversarial training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.09904/) (2016)
- [GCN-GAN: A Non-linear Temporal Link Prediction Model for Weighted Dynamic Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09165/) (2019)
- [An Attentive Inductive Bias for Sequential Recommendation beyond the Self-Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.10325/) (2023)
- [Empirical Evaluation of Pre-trained Transformers for Human-Level NLP: The Role of Sample Size and Dimensionality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.03484/) (2021)
- [Spatiotemporal Data Mining: A Survey on Challenges and Open Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.17128/) (2021)
- [MultiLoad-GAN: A GAN-Based Synthetic Load Group Generation Method Considering Spatial-Temporal Correlations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.01167/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate tourism demand forecasting is hindered by limited historical data and complex spatiotemporal dependencies among tourist origins. A novel forecasting framework integrating virtual sample generation and a novel Transformer predictor addresses constraints arising from restricted data availability. A spatiotemporal GAN produces realistic virtual samples by dynamically modeling spatial correlations through a graph convolutional network, and an enhanced Transformer captures local patterns with causal convolutions and long-term dependencies with self-attention,eliminating autoregressive decoding. A joint training strategy refines virtual sample generation based on predictor feedback to maintain robust performance under data-scarce conditions. Experimental evaluations on real-world daily and monthly tourism demand datasets indicate a reduction in average MASE by 18.37% compared to conventional Transformer-based models, demonstrating improved forecasting accuracy. The integration of adaptive spatiotemporal sample augmentation with a specialized Transformer can effectively address limited-data forecasting scenarios in tourism management.