# Self-Reported Confidence of Large Language Models in Gastroenterology: Analysis of Commercial, Open-Source, and Quantized Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.18562 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.18562/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 16 of its 27 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Mar 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 16 of 16)

- [Inference-Time Intervention: Eliciting Truthful Answers from a Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03341/) (2023)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [SelfCheckGPT: Zero-Resource Black-Box Hallucination Detection for Generative Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08896/) (2023)
- [Can large language models reason about medical questions?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.08143/) (2022)
- [Sources of Hallucination by Large Language Models on Inference Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14552/) (2023)
- [Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04696/) (2024)
- [Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Free-Form Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01379/) (2023)
- [Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Large Language Models with LM-Polygraph](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15627/) (2024)
- [On Verbalized Confidence Scores for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.14737/) (2024)
- [Skill-Mix: a Flexible and Expandable Family of Evaluations for AI models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.17567/) (2023)
- [The Ethics of ChatGPT in Medicine and Healthcare: A Systematic Review on Large Language Models (LLMs)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14473/) (2024)
- [Measuring Reliability of Large Language Models through Semantic Consistency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.05853/) (2022)
- [Efficient Non-Parametric Uncertainty Quantification for Black-Box Large Language Models and Decision Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00251/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Estimation of Large Language Models in Medical Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.08662/) (2024)
- [Vision-Language and Large Language Model Performance in Gastroenterology: GPT, Claude, Llama, Phi, Mistral, Gemma, and Quantized Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.00084/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [The challenge of uncertainty quantification of large language models in medicine](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05278/) (2025)
- [Trustworthy Medical Question Answering: An Evaluation-Centric Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.03659/) (2025)
- [OmniMed-Jev: Calibrating LVLM Confidence for Trustworthy Medical Multimodal Decisions via System One](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.00381/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This study evaluated self-reported response certainty across several large language models (GPT, Claude, Llama, Phi, Mistral, Gemini, Gemma, and Qwen) using 300 gastroenterology board-style questions. The highest-performing models (GPT-o1 preview, GPT-4o, and Claude-3.5-Sonnet) achieved Brier scores of 0.15-0.2 and AUROC of 0.6. Although newer models demonstrated improved performance, all exhibited a consistent tendency towards overconfidence. Uncertainty estimation presents a significant challenge to the safe use of LLMs in healthcare. Keywords: Large Language Models; Confidence Elicitation; Artificial Intelligence; Gastroenterology; Uncertainty Quantification