# Inferring Events from Time Series using Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14190 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14190/

## Key facts

- Cited by 10 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 27 of its 58 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Mar 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 27 of 27)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [LiveCodeBench: Holistic and Contamination Free Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07974/) (2024)
- [Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.04615/) (2022)
- [Challenging BIG-Bench Tasks and Whether Chain-of-Thought Can Solve Them](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.09261/) (2022)
- [s1: Simple test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19393/) (2025)
- [Phi-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.08905/) (2024)
- [BigCodeBench: Benchmarking Code Generation with Diverse Function Calls and Complex Instructions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15877/) (2024)
- [Multitask learning and benchmarking with clinical time series data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07771/) (2017)
- [FinanceBench: A New Benchmark for Financial Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.11944/) (2023)
- [PIXIU: A Large Language Model, Instruction Data and Evaluation Benchmark for Finance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05443/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models Can Learn Temporal Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06853/) (2024)
- [ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19839/) (2024)
- [ChatTS: Aligning Time Series with LLMs via Synthetic Data for Enhanced Understanding and Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.03104/) (2024)
- [ChatTime: A Unified Multimodal Time Series Foundation Model Bridging Numerical and Textual Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.11376/) (2024)
- [From News to Forecast: Integrating Event Analysis in LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting with Reflection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17515/) (2024)
- [Language Models Still Struggle to Zero-shot Reason about Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.11757/) (2024)
- [Test of Time: A Benchmark for Evaluating LLMs on Temporal Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09170/) (2024)
- [Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.18959/) (2024)
- [TimeSeriesExam: A time series understanding exam](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.14752/) (2024)
- [Can LLMs Understand Time Series Anomalies?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.05440/) (2024)
- [EconLogicQA: A Question-Answering Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Models in Economic Sequential Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.07938/) (2024)
- [Can LLMs Serve As Time Series Anomaly Detectors?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03475/) (2024)
- [Quantifying Qualitative Insights: Leveraging LLMs to Market Predict](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.08404/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [TimeOmni-1: Incentivizing Complex Reasoning with Time Series in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.24803/) (2025)
- [A Survey of Reasoning and Agentic Systems in Time Series with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.11575/) (2025)
- [TSRBench: A Comprehensive Multi-task Multi-modal Time Series Reasoning Benchmark for Generalist Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.18744/) (2026)
- [BEDTime: A Unified Benchmark for Automatically Describing Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.05215/) (2025)
- [STReasoner: Empowering LLMs for Spatio-Temporal Reasoning in Time Series via Spatial-Aware Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.03248/) (2026)
- [Multimodal Language Models with Modality-Specific Experts for Financial Forecasting from Interleaved Sequences of Text and Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.19628/) (2025)
- [LEAF: A Living Benchmark for Event-Augmented Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.16358/) (2026)
- [Agentic Time Machine as an Infrastructure for Future-Event Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.21013/) (2026)
- [Toward Reasoning-Centric Time-Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.13029/) (2025)
- [AnomSeer: Reinforcing Multimodal LLMs to Reason for Time-Series Anomaly Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.08868/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

A common goal in analyzing time series data is to understand how events cause observed variations. We study whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can infer natural language events associated with time series data. We introduce an automated method for generating tasks that test a model's ability to reason about events associated with time series data based on sports data, and develop a new benchmarking method. In experiments spanning 18 LLMs, we prompt LLMs to infer unobserved events given time series data and observe surprising successes, even when providing minimal context. We then show that combining distillation with Reinforcement Learning (RL) can improve the performance for small language models to approach that of large proprietary reasoning models. All resources needed to reproduce our work are available: https://github.com/hartvigsen-group/GAMETime