# OCCUQ: Exploring Efficient Uncertainty Quantification for 3D Occupancy Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.10605 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.10605/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 34 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Mar 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 34)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11027/) (2019)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Deformable Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06211/) (2017)
- [Lift, Splat, Shoot: Encoding Images From Arbitrary Camera Rigs by Implicitly Unprojecting to 3D](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.05711/) (2020)
- [Tri-Perspective View for Vision-Based 3D Semantic Occupancy Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.07817/) (2023)
- [Simple and Principled Uncertainty Estimation with Deterministic Deep Learning via Distance Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10108/) (2020)
- [MonoScene: Monocular 3D Semantic Scene Completion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.00726/) (2021)
- [Snapshot Ensembles: Train 1, get M for free](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.00109/) (2017)
- [Occ3D: A Large-Scale 3D Occupancy Prediction Benchmark for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14365/) (2023)
- [SurroundOcc: Multi-Camera 3D Occupancy Prediction for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.09551/) (2023)
- [VoxFormer: Sparse Voxel Transformer for Camera-based 3D Semantic Scene Completion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.12251/) (2023)
- [OccFormer: Dual-path Transformer for Vision-based 3D Semantic Occupancy Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05316/) (2023)
- [OpenOOD: Benchmarking Generalized Out-of-Distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.07242/) (2022)
- [SalsaNext: Fast, Uncertainty-aware Semantic Segmentation of LiDAR Point Clouds for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.03653/) (2020)
- [OpenOccupancy: A Large Scale Benchmark for Surrounding Semantic Occupancy Perception](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.03991/) (2023)
- [Deep Deterministic Uncertainty: A Simple Baseline](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11582/) (2021)
- [Training independent subnetworks for robust prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.06610/) (2020)
- [FB-OCC: 3D Occupancy Prediction based on Forward-Backward View Transformation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01492/) (2023)
- [Robo3D: Towards Robust and Reliable 3D Perception against Corruptions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17597/) (2023)
- [A Review and Comparative Study on Probabilistic Object Detection in Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.10671/) (2020)
- [Shifts: A Dataset of Real Distributional Shift Across Multiple Large-Scale Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07455/) (2021)
- [Masksembles for Uncertainty Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.08334/) (2020)
- [On Feature Collapse and Deep Kernel Learning for Single Forward Pass Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11409/) (2021)
- [Anomaly Detection in Autonomous Driving: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.07974/) (2022)
- [Packed-Ensembles for Efficient Uncertainty Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.09184/) (2022)
- [PaSCo: Urban 3D Panoptic Scene Completion with Uncertainty Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.02158/) (2023)
- [Uncertainty Estimation Using a Single Deep Deterministic Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.02037/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Trends in Motion Prediction Toward Deployable and Generalizable Autonomy: A Revisit and Perspectives](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09074/) (2025)
- [TGSFormer: Scalable Temporal Gaussian Splatting for Embodied Semantic Scene Completion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.00300/) (2025)
- [Can we Trust Unreliable Voxels? Exploring 3D Semantic Occupancy Prediction under Label Noise](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.06279/) (2026)
- [Query2Uncertainty: Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Calibration for 3D Object Detection under Distribution Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.05328/) (2026)
- [ProOOD: Prototype-Guided Out-of-Distribution 3D Occupancy Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.01081/) (2026)
- [Towards Trustworthy and Explainable AI for Perception Models: From Concept to Prototype Vehicle Deployment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.16087/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Autonomous driving has the potential to significantly enhance productivity and provide numerous societal benefits. Ensuring robustness in these safety-critical systems is essential, particularly when vehicles must navigate adverse weather conditions and sensor corruptions that may not have been encountered during training. Current methods often overlook uncertainties arising from adversarial conditions or distributional shifts, limiting their real-world applicability. We propose an efficient adaptation of an uncertainty estimation technique for 3D occupancy prediction. Our method dynamically calibrates model confidence using epistemic uncertainty estimates. Our evaluation under various camera corruption scenarios, such as fog or missing cameras, demonstrates that our approach effectively quantifies epistemic uncertainty by assigning higher uncertainty values to unseen data. We introduce region-specific corruptions to simulate defects affecting only a single camera and validate our findings through both scene-level and region-level assessments. Our results show superior performance in Out-of-Distribution (OoD) detection and confidence calibration compared to common baselines such as Deep Ensembles and MC-Dropout. Our approach consistently demonstrates reliable uncertainty measures, indicating its potential for enhancing the robustness of autonomous driving systems in real-world scenarios. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/ika-rwth-aachen/OCCUQ .